7800 Tayloe Dr #72 · Independent Hill, VA 20112

$92,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition $92/sqft · 79% below area $1086/mo HOA · 38% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful 2015! and well-maintained home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen features granite countertops and modern upgrades throughout. Central heating and air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings and a relaxing lifestyle make this home yours. Currently tenant occupied. Lot rent is $1,086 per month and includes trash . Buyer must be approved by Forest Mobile Park property management, with a non-refundable background and credit check of $55 per adult applicant required, even for cash purchases

Key facts

• Built 2015
• Listed 130 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $92,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$442,731) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $531 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.2% in Independent Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#449 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($195k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.73%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $442,731
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: -79.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $19,607
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $63,489
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20112

• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$1,086
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,179

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,086 · $13,032/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $92,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $92,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    price $92,000 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 2015! and well-maintained home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen features granite countertops and modern upgrades throughout. Central heating and air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings and a relaxing lifestyle make this home yours. Currently tenant occupied. Lot rent is $1,086 per month and includes trash . Buyer must be approved by Forest Mobile Park property management, with a non-refundable background and credit check of $55 per adult applicant required, even for cash purchases

15. 2026-02-07
    listed $96,000 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 2015! and well-maintained home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen features granite countertops and modern upgrades throughout. Central heating and air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings and a relaxing lifestyle make this home yours. Currently tenant occupied. Lot rent is $1,086 per month and includes trash . Buyer must be approved by Forest Mobile Park property management, with a non-refundable background and credit check of $55 per adult applicant required, even for cash purchases

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,737
• − Management: −$2,737
• − HOA: −$13,032
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $6,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $4,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2015 mobile home is in good condition with modern upgrades and central HVAC. It's currently tenant occupied and requires minor cosmetic updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both minor kitchen updates — updating countertops and fixtures can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting — fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both minor kitchen updates — updating countertops and fixtures can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Independent Hill

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #449
• US rank: #19246

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 30,500
• Household income: $195,467
• Rent vs Own: 3.4% rent · 96.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 51.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.57%
• Current HPI: 288.6937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $92,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $96,000 BRIGHT MLS