4399 Aplicella Ct #67 · Lathrop, CA 95337

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Built 1976 $111/sqft · at area comps Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You don't need a million dollars to live like this. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bat manufactured home offers over 1,400 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living, plus dedicated office space, expansive front yard, private parking, and serene water views. Located in the ever-growing City of Manteca, California, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value all in one. Homes like this do not last. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Serene water views
• Private parking
• Expansive front yard

Tags

• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• EXPANSIVE FRONT YARD
• PRIVATE PARKING
• SERENE WATER VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lathrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#842 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, schools F, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 387 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.03%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,763
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -4.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4399 Aplicella #59	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$188,000	$131	96
4399 Aplicella Ct #29	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$74,000	$51	94
4399 Aplicella Ct #49	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-11%)	5mo	$185,000	$144	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $50,831
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $125,901
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95337

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $1,307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3275 Hayduke St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,950	$1.82	3d	1	1.16mi
1781 Haines Ave Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,400	$1.38	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   status $159,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   status $159,900 Pending Sale 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-03-24
   status Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   You don't need a million dollars to live like this. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bat manufactured home offers over 1,400 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living, plus dedicated office space, expansive front yard, private parking, and serene water views. Located in the ever-growing City of Manteca, California, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value all in one. Homes like this do not last. Schedule your showing today.

9. 2026-03-17
   status Pending Sale 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   You don't need a million dollars to live like this. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bat manufactured home offers over 1,400 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living, plus dedicated office space, expansive front yard, private parking, and serene water views. Located in the ever-growing City of Manteca, California, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value all in one. Homes like this do not last. Schedule your showing today.

10. 2026-03-17
    status Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    You don't need a million dollars to live like this. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bat manufactured home offers over 1,400 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living, plus dedicated office space, expansive front yard, private parking, and serene water views. Located in the ever-growing City of Manteca, California, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value all in one. Homes like this do not last. Schedule your showing today.

11. 2026-02-11
    status Pending Sale 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    You don't need a million dollars to live like this. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bat manufactured home offers over 1,400 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living, plus dedicated office space, expansive front yard, private parking, and serene water views. Located in the ever-growing City of Manteca, California, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value all in one. Homes like this do not last. Schedule your showing today.

12. 2026-01-08
    listed $159,900 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    You don't need a million dollars to live like this. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bat manufactured home offers over 1,400 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living, plus dedicated office space, expansive front yard, private parking, and serene water views. Located in the ever-growing City of Manteca, California, this home delivers comfort, lifestyle, and value all in one. Homes like this do not last. Schedule your showing today.

13. 2023-10-23
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

14. 2023-10-23
    soldstatus $140,000 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

15. 2023-09-12
    status Pending 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

16. 2023-07-15
    status Active 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

17. 2023-07-11
    price $144,900 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

18. 2023-06-14
    status Active 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

19. 2023-06-07
    status Pending 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

20. 2023-05-02
    listed $149,900 Active 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

21. 2023-05-02
    listed $144,900 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This unit is amazing, open floor plan and also has an addition not included in the square footage. Large corner lot. Seller offers financing with as little as 5% down payment to qualified buyers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,931
• − Management: −$2,931
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $13,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,353
• After-tax cash flow: $12,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lathrop

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #23278

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 35,395
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,731
• Household income: $117,137
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 880.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 29% Two or more races 23% Asian 21% Black 4% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 11% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -481.88%
• Current HPI: 273.9008
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $159,900 CRMLS
• 2023-10-23 Sold (MLS) $140,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-10-23 Sold (MLS) $140,000 BAREIS
• 2023-09-12 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-07-15 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $144,900 BAREIS
• 2023-06-14 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2023-06-07 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-05-02 Listed $144,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-05-02 Listed $149,900 BAREIS