651 54th Ln S #14 · Gulfport, FL 33707

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1974 $240/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. A LOT of PLUSES in this HOME. .. from the Covered Composite Floored Front Porch Through the Double French Doors with Mini-blind Inserts to the Open Floor Plan Family Room, Dining, Lving Room Open to the Kitchen. There is a Convienient 1/2 Bath off the Family Room. * Updated Windows Throughout * The Eat-in Kitchen is Loaded with Storage Cabinets, an Extra Countertop and an Extra Window for Abundant Natural Light. Both Bedrooms Accomodate Larger Beds and have Mirrored Closet Doors. The Well Appointed Hall Bath has Two Extra Storage Cabinets, a Tub / Shower Combination and a Washing Machine Closet. There is a Hall Broom Closet. Along the Hall is an Up

Key facts

• Extra countertop
• Open floor plan
• Double french doors

Tags

• DOUBLE FRENCH DOORS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• EXTRA COUNTERTOP
• MIRRORED CLOSET DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential mobile home; Furnished; Total living area reported as 852 square feet; Building area reported as 1,402 square feet; Universal property ID available
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee $240; Association amenities: laundry, pool, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, gas, grounds maintenance, private road, sewer, trash, water; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Community features: clubhouse, street lights, golf carts OK, association-owned recreation

Exterior

• Parking: Covered tandem parking; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Fire hydrant nearby; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; East facing; Covered roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Roof over
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; French doors; Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Vinyl fencing; Shed(s); City limits lot, level and paved; Asphalt road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Window treatments (blinds, shades)
• Laundry & utility: Washer (hookup inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.0% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#151 in FL, #2,285 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities D.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 458 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $99k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.62%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,464
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
663 54th Way S #146	0.04mi	2/2.0	672 (0%)	11mo	$58,500	$87	85
680 52nd Way S #54	0.22mi	2/1.0	660 (-2%)	8mo	$52,000	$79	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $8,004
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $25,551
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33707

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,019/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$240
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5011 Emerson Ave S Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,450	$2.42	24d	1	0.42mi
5991 Fairfield Ave S Unit 4 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	690	$1,600	$2.32	24d	1	0.48mi
5428 Burlington Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	726	$2,150	$2.96	24d	1	0.65mi
5219 17th Ave S Unit 5219 Gulfport, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	21d	1	0.72mi
1720 53rd St S Gulfport, FL	1.0	1.0	728	$1,800	$2.47	4d	1	0.77mi
1720 53rd St S Unit 1720 Gulfport, FL	1.0	1.0	723	$1,800	$2.49	17d	1	0.77mi
5608 18th Ave S Gulfport, FL	1.0	1.0	560	$1,600	$2.86	24d	1	0.78mi
555 62nd St S Unit 102 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	640	$1,300	$2.03	13d	1	0.78mi
555 62nd St S Unit 103 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	640	$1,375	$2.15	24d	1	0.79mi
1806 57th St S Fl 33714 Gulfport, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,500	$2.73	24d	1	0.80mi
118 48th St N Unit A St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	680	$1,800	$2.65	24d	1	0.81mi
430 55th St N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.5	735	$1,850	$2.52	7d	1	0.84mi
4619 13th Ave S Unit 2 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,095	$2.43	7d	1	0.85mi
4619 13th Ave S Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,095	$2.43	3d	1	0.85mi
4545 12th Ave S Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	660	$2,000	$3.03	4d	1	0.87mi
6256 3rd Ave S Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,749	$2.92	24d	1	0.87mi
5042 7th Ave N Unit Pool House St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	475	$1,500	$3.16	24d	1	1.07mi
1727 45th St S Unit B St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,150	$1.92	7d	1	1.11mi
5434 9th Ave N Unit A St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,400	$2.43	24d	1	1.15mi
5821 8th Ave N Unit 203 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	635	$1,195	$1.88	24d	1	1.15mi
6565 5th Ave S Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	730	$1,895	$2.60	24d	1	1.18mi
810 Tyrone Blvd N Unit G-2 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	24d	1	1.18mi
4720 7th Ave N Unit B St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	520	$1,600	$3.08	24d	1	1.20mi
1147 40th St S St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	440	$1,100	$2.50	24d	1	1.30mi
3936 9th Ave S Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	696	$1,895	$2.72	7d	1	1.31mi
2524 52nd St S Unit 2 Gulfport, FL	1.0	1.0	575	$1,595	$2.77	17d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $240 · $2,880/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-28
   listed $99,000 Active
2. 2009-04-01
   soldstatus $18,000
3. 2005-04-01
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,019 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,019 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,019
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − HOA: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,022
• After-tax cash flow: $4,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #2285

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 24,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,324
• Household income: $69,951
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1371.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.96%
• Current HPI: 359.4858
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,019 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.