4601 SE Kincaid Ave · Lawton, OK 73501

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1977 8,125 sqft lot Est $158k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice home in a great school district. 3 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, and 2 living areas. Impressive brick fireplace and shelving. Kitchen with breakfast bar. Fenced yard. New carpet. Updated hall bath - tile counter-tops, tile tub enclosure, tile floors. New fixtures. 2" blinds. Wood laminate floors in living room and hallways. CH & Air replaced 2015. Roof was replaced in 2012. Call 580-248-8800 for a showing and more details.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Semi cul-de-sac
• Recent updates

Tags

• 2 LIVING AREAS
• FIREPLACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FENCED YARD
• SEMI CUL-DE-SAC
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces total; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Storm door(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/Remodeled; One story; Brick veneer construction
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Chain-link fencing; Spa/Hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Range hood; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Storm windows and window coverings; Wood-burning fireplace; Therapeutic whirlpool
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sullivan Village Es (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 433 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Ms (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #113 of 345 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Hs (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #139 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,163 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,247 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4703 SE Kincaid Ave	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+3%)	11mo	$170,000	$131	77
4721 SE 47th	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+4%)	9mo	$165,000	$125	75
4715 SE Kincaid	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+11%)	1mo	$160,000	$114	74
5005 SE 47th St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+3%)	6mo	$135,000	$104	71
4604 SE Ellsworth Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	13mo	$160,000	$133	68
4505 SE Avalon Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	8mo	$135,000	$113	68
1608 SE Indiana Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+8%)	11mo	$192,000	$141	68
4747 SE 47th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+11%)	8mo	$161,500	$115	59
4219 SE Bedford Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+3%)	7mo	$165,000	$127	58
4017 SE Bedford Cir	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+3%)	3mo	$136,800	$105	57
4806 SE Redbud Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+11%)	12mo	$165,000	$118	48
5038 SE Redbud Pl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+11%)	11mo	$189,500	$135	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.71% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,727
• Equity at exit: $37,036

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $16,829
• Equity at exit: $40,652

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73501

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,453/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,192

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-16
   listed $145,000 Active
2. 2024-06-20
   soldstatus $730,000
3. 2024-06-20
   soldstatus $730,000
4. 2016-10-07
   soldstatus $80,500 438-char remark

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   Very nice home in a great school district. 3 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, and 2 living areas. Impressive brick fireplace and shelving. Kitchen with breakfast bar. Fenced yard. New carpet. Updated hall bath - tile counter-tops, tile tub enclosure, tile floors. New fixtures. 2" blinds. Wood laminate floors in living room and hallways. CH & Air replaced 2015. Roof was replaced in 2012. Call 580-248-8800 for a showing and more details.

5. 2016-10-07
   soldstatus $80,500

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   Very nice home in a great school district. 3 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, and 2 living areas. Impressive brick fireplace and shelving. Kitchen with breakfast bar. Fenced yard. New carpet. Updated hall bath - tile counter-tops, tile tub enclosure, tile floors. New fixtures. 2" blinds. Wood laminate floors in living room and hallways. CH & Air replaced 2015. Roof was replaced in 2012. Call 580-248-8800 for a showing and more details.

6. 2016-07-21
   listed $82,500 438-char remark

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   Very nice home in a great school district. 3 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, and 2 living areas. Impressive brick fireplace and shelving. Kitchen with breakfast bar. Fenced yard. New carpet. Updated hall bath - tile counter-tops, tile tub enclosure, tile floors. New fixtures. 2" blinds. Wood laminate floors in living room and hallways. CH & Air replaced 2015. Roof was replaced in 2012. Call 580-248-8800 for a showing and more details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,453
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$164
• After-tax cash flow: $1,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 20,397
• Household income: $49,741
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 742.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 20% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 14% Native American 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Current HPI: 172.4877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+75.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $145,000 LBRMLS
• 2024-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $730,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $730,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records
• 2016-10-07 Sold (MLS) $80,500 LBRMLS
• 2016-07-21 Listed $82,500 LBRMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,453 · +29.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.