Is 328 Navidad River Dr in San Marcos, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C with a 7.3% cap rate and $158/mo modeled cash flow at a $179,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 328 Navidad River Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 7.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,857/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C Composite 55.31

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +18.1/30.0
ARV discount +13.0/15.0
DSCR +5.7/10.0
1% rule +5.3/10.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.0/5.0
Schools +2.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$179,999

328 Navidad River Dr · San Marcos, TX 78666

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $130/sqft · 12% below area Est $205k · 12% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Open floorplan
Secondary bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Dezavala El (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 87% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1617 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,199 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.03% ✓
Cap rate: 7.35%
Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
DSCR: 1.17
GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $205,240
List price: $179,999
Delta: -6.94%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Trinity River Holw	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	3mo	$201,999	$146	94
249 Trinity River Holw	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	4mo	$196,999	$143	94
313 Trinity River Holw	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	5mo	$196,990	$143	94
221 Trinity River Holw	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	2mo	$201,999	$146	93
209 Trinity River Holw	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	2mo	$200,999	$146	93
208 Navidad River Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	3mo	$180,999	$131	92
309 Trinity River Holw	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	1mo	$209,999	$140	77
120 Trinity River Holw	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+8%)	3mo	$220,999	$149	76
245 Trinity River Holw	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	3mo	$209,999	$140	75
220 Navidad River Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	3mo	$186,999	$125	74
229 Trinity River Holw	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-13%)	3mo	$171,999	$143	72
204 Navidad River Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	4mo	$211,999	$141	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -11.6%
Equity multiple: 0.59×
Total profit: $-20,908
Equity at exit: $26,838

10-year hold

IRR: -3.9%
Equity multiple: 0.75×
Total profit: $-12,537
Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 28 active · 28 under contract
Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $216,499 ($144/sqft)
Median days on market: 51 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78666

Rents YoY: 2.0%
Active inventory: 1617
Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,857 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$944
Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
Insurance: −$75
HOA: −$65
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,657

Max offer price $179,999

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $220	+0% $158	+5% $96	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $85	+0% $158	+5% $232	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $204	base $158	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $45,000
Closing costs: $5,400
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
317 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1802	$2,000	$1.11	10d	1	0.05mi
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	119d	1	0.06mi
309 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	0d	1	0.06mi
205 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1802	$2,000	$1.11	10d	1	0.15mi
1525 Scull Rd San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,400	$1.54	10d	1	0.89mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	119d	1	0.95mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,900	$1.50	0d	1	0.95mi
121 Butler Ln Martindale, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,850	$1.63	119d	1	1.30mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association: River Bridge RanchHOA fee $65 monthly

Exterior

Utilities: Electricity availablePublic waterPublic sewer (connected)
Home design: Single-storyFaces northwestUnder construction
Construction: Built by Lennar (year built: builder source)HardiPlank-type sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Private yardFront porchPrivacy fencingInterior, level lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherRange
Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
Flooring: CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closet(s)Window features: see remarks
Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

pricedays on market $179,999 Active 84 DOM
2026-09-22

pricedays on market $175,999 Active 83 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $190,999 Active 82 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $190,999 Active 81 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $190,999 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $190,999 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $190,999 Active 78 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $190,999 Active 77 DOM
2026-09-15

pricedays on market $190,999 Active 76 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $186,999 Active 75 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $186,999 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $186,999 Active 73 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $186,999 Active 72 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $186,999 Active 66 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $186,999 Active 65 DOM
2026-09-03

pricedays on market $186,999 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $181,999 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $181,999 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $181,999 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $181,999 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $181,999 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $181,999 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $181,999 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $181,999 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $181,999 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $181,999 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $181,999 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $181,999 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $181,999 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $181,999 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $181,999 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $181,999 Active 45 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $181,999 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $181,999 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $181,999 Active 41 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $181,999 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $181,999 Active 39 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $181,999 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $181,999 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $181,999 Active 35 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $181,999 Active 34 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $181,999 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $181,999 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $181,999 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $181,999 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $181,999 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $181,999 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $181,999 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $181,999 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $181,999 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,286
− Mortgage interest: −$10,083
− Property taxes: −$2,700
− Insurance: −$900
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
− Management: −$1,783
− HOA: −$780
− Depreciation: −$5,236
Taxable loss: −$979

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
After-tax cash flow: $2,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home is move-in ready with a good condition score and modern finishes. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers would appreciate updates to the exterior and interior paint, as well as kitchen and bathroom upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Dezavala El F TX #3,739/4,322 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Goodnight Middle F TX #1,536/1,662 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High San Marcos H S F TX #1,157/1,632 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: San Marcos CISD
NCES district ID: 4838970
Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
Median HH income: $34,538
Composite: 20.11/100
National rank: #8644
State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — San Marcos

Score: 81/100
State rank: #30
US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: San Marcos, TX
County: Hays County · 286,948 people
City population: 88,583
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 88,583
Household income: $54,737
Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 286,948 people
By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
Current HPI: 187.6679
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-07-09 Price Changed $181,999 Zillow
2026-07-08 Relisted — Unlock MLS
2026-07-08 Price Changed $201,999 Zillow
2026-07-08 Relisted — Zillow
2026-06-23 Pending — Unlock MLS
2026-06-20 Delisted — Zillow
2026-06-16 Listed $181,999 Unlock MLS
2026-06-15 Listed $181,999 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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