669 County Route 5 · St. Regis Falls, NY 12930

$185,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1890 1.00 ac lot Est $239k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This one is a GEM, wrapping some older charm and modern amenities all into one! The interior of the home has 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, with a full bath and a bedroom on the main floor. There is a "great room" featuring an eat-in kitchen with a center island, an extra dining area off to the side, and the living room. The pellet stove in this area provides added warmth. The kitchen has Kraft Maid cabinetry with self-closing and pull-out drawers, plenty of counter space, and the appliances will convey. The tile flooring in the "great room" is definitely a plus. There is even a formal dining room (with original hardwood floors), perfect for when you need even more space for

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Laundry room
• Kraft maid cabinetry

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• KRAFT MAID CABINETRY
• TILE FLOORING
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Partial crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Front porch; Metal roof; 1 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood; Ceramic tile; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil fuel
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saint Regis Falls Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #699 of 755 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $185k implies a 429% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,956 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,335
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Church Street St	0.20mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,574 (-1%)	6mo	$32,500	$21	77
420 Akins Rd	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (-12%)	21mo	$212,000	$151	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $86,529
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $266,077
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12930

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,913/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $145,463

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-171	+0% $-224	+5% $-276	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-277	+0% $-224	+5% $-171	+10% $-117
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-177	base $-224	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2002-08-20
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,913 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,913
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$5,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saint Regis Falls Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627990
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,831
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #10964
• State rank: #699 of 755 in NY

Livability — St. Regis Falls

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 866

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.45%
• Current HPI: 483.7564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+428.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $185,000 SLCMLS
• 2002-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,913 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.