312 E Church St · Kilmarnock, VA 22482

$240,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 1975 10,802 sqft lot $163/sqft · at area comps Est $247k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the charm of small-town living with sidewalks from your front door leading directly into the heart of the coastal town of Kilmarnock. Enjoy boutique shopping, local dining, and community events just minutes away. This classic home features beautiful hardwood floors and abundant natural light throughout. The interior offers convenient one-level living with a welcoming living room, dining room, family room, two bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a kitchen. Relax and enjoy the outdoors from the inviting front porch or the private back porch. The laundry area is conveniently located on the back porch and includes fairly new washer and dryer units. There are steps to a floored attic, great storage, or finish for an additional room. The home also offers a nice backyard with space to enjoy. Whether you are looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, this home offers wonderful possibilities. Located just minutes from the Chesapeake Boat Basin, where you can rent a boat slip and enjoy boating on Indian Creek.

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• One-level living
• Private back porch

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE BACK PORCH
• LAUNDRY AREA ON BACK PORCH
• FLOORED ATTIC
• NICE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.1% in Kilmarnock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#407 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $204,547 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,421
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -3.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 Brent Pl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-1%)	17mo	$205,000	$141	71
34 Purcell Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+1%)	23mo	$285,000	$192	60
1 Lawler Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-1%)	15mo	$210,000	$144	50
326 Chase St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-7%)	10mo	$296,000	$216	42
142 Hatton Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	24mo	$240,000	$143	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $45,910
• Equity at exit: $112,553

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $140,105
• Equity at exit: $177,154

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22482

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $684/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $268	+0% $200	+5% $132	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $119	+0% $200	+5% $281	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $261	base $200	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $220,000 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Experience the charm of small-town living with sidewalks from your front door leading directly into the heart of the coastal town of Kilmarnock. Enjoy boutique shopping, local dining, and community events just minutes away. This classic home features beautiful hardwood floors and abundant natural light throughout. The interior offers convenient one-level living with a welcoming living room, dining room, family room, two bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a kitchen. Relax and enjoy the outdoors from the inviting front porch or the private back porch. The laundry area is conveniently located on the back porch and includes fairly new washer and dryer units. There are steps to a floored attic, great storage, or finish for an additional room. The home also offers a nice backyard with space to enjoy. Whether you are looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, this home offers wonderful possibilities. Located just minutes from the Chesapeake Boat Basin, where you can rent a boat slip and enjoy boating on Indian Creek.

18. 2026-05-14
    price $220,000 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Experience the charm of small-town living with sidewalks from your front door leading directly into the heart of the coastal town of Kilmarnock. Enjoy boutique shopping, local dining, and community events just minutes away. This classic home features beautiful hardwood floors and abundant natural light throughout. The interior offers convenient one-level living with a welcoming living room, dining room, family room, two bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a kitchen. Relax and enjoy the outdoors from the inviting front porch or the private back porch. The laundry area is conveniently located on the back porch and includes fairly new washer and dryer units. There are steps to a floored attic, great storage, or finish for an additional room. The home also offers a nice backyard with space to enjoy. Whether you are looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, this home offers wonderful possibilities. Located just minutes from the Chesapeake Boat Basin, where you can rent a boat slip and enjoy boating on Indian Creek.

19. 2026-03-08
    listed $240,000 Active 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Experience the charm of small-town living with sidewalks from your front door leading directly into the heart of the coastal town of Kilmarnock. Enjoy boutique shopping, local dining, and community events just minutes away. This classic home features beautiful hardwood floors and abundant natural light throughout. The interior offers convenient one-level living with a welcoming living room, dining room, family room, two bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a kitchen. Relax and enjoy the outdoors from the inviting front porch or the private back porch. The laundry area is conveniently located on the back porch and includes fairly new washer and dryer units. There are steps to a floored attic, great storage, or finish for an additional room. The home also offers a nice backyard with space to enjoy. Whether you are looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, this home offers wonderful possibilities. Located just minutes from the Chesapeake Boat Basin, where you can rent a boat slip and enjoy boating on Indian Creek.

20. 2026-03-08
    listed $240,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Experience the charm of small-town living with sidewalks from your front door leading directly into the heart of the coastal town of Kilmarnock. Enjoy boutique shopping, local dining, and community events just minutes away. This classic home features beautiful hardwood floors and abundant natural light throughout. The interior offers convenient one-level living with a welcoming living room, dining room, family room, two bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a kitchen. Relax and enjoy the outdoors from the inviting front porch or the private back porch. The laundry area is conveniently located on the back porch and includes fairly new washer and dryer units. There are steps to a floored attic, great storage, or finish for an additional room. The home also offers a nice backyard with space to enjoy. Whether you are looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, this home offers wonderful possibilities. Located just minutes from the Chesapeake Boat Basin, where you can rent a boat slip and enjoy boating on Indian Creek.

21. 2026-03-07
    listed $240,000 Active 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Experience the charm of small-town living with sidewalks from your front door leading directly into the heart of the coastal town of Kilmarnock. Enjoy boutique shopping, local dining, and community events just minutes away. This classic home features beautiful hardwood floors and abundant natural light throughout. The interior offers convenient one-level living with a welcoming living room, dining room, family room, two bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a kitchen. Relax and enjoy the outdoors from the inviting front porch or the private back porch. The laundry area is conveniently located on the back porch and includes fairly new washer and dryer units. There are steps to a floored attic, great storage, or finish for an additional room. The home also offers a nice backyard with space to enjoy. Whether you are looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, this home offers wonderful possibilities. Located just minutes from the Chesapeake Boat Basin, where you can rent a boat slip and enjoy boating on Indian Creek.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,284/yr (+$107/mo · 187.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$684
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$1,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$406
• After-tax cash flow: $2,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northumberland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102730
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $52,524
• Composite: 47.93/100
• National rank: #2209
• State rank: #75 of 131 in VA

Livability — Kilmarnock

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #17011

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kilmarnock, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,171

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,873 people
• By 2030: 11,609 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 10,938 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 10,235 · -13.8%
• By 2075: 8,922 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 7,288 · -38.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Current HPI: 232.4115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $220,000 CBRAR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $220,000 NNAR
• 2026-03-08 Listed $240,000 CBRAR
• 2026-03-08 Listed $240,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $240,000 NNAR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $684 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.