Is 504 County Route 40 in Windham, NY a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 5.1% cap rate and $-302/mo modeled cash flow at a $297,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 504 County Route 40?

The modeled cap rate is 5.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,216/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 48.57

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.0/30.0
Appreciation +7.5/10.0
Schools +4.3/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
1% rule +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +2.1/10.0

$297,000

504 County Route 40 · Windham, NY 12496

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily · 152 Days on market

Built 1962 Good condition 0.34 ac lot $286/sqft · 21% below area Est $377k · 21% under ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Totally renovated 2-bedroom, 2-full bath ranch-style home featuring an open floor plan and a full finished walk-out basement that offers versatile living space with the potential for additional bedrooms. The interior showcases a new kitchen with quartz countertops, an undermount sink, a tiled backsplash, maple cabinetry, and high-quality appliances. Additional updates include ceramic tiled bathrooms and all-new vinyl plank flooring throughout. The exterior features a wrap-around custom deck, perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Ideally located for a mountain getaway, this home is just minutes from world-class skiing at Windham and Hunter Mountains. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the proximity to Colgate Lake, Kaaterskill Falls, and local NYS hiking trails, with the serene Bataviakill stream located directly behind the property.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
New kitchen
Tiled backsplash

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (14.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (25.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $222k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.8% in Windham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 60/100 on livability (#964 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #517 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $221,582 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.75% ✗
Cap rate: 5.07%
Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
DSCR: 0.81
GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $377,421
List price: $297,000
Delta: -21.31%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Evergreen Ln	1.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+2%)	18mo	$340,000	$322	42
95 Mountain View Estates Rd Unit C3	0.86mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	25mo	$290,000	$290	39
25 Mountain View Estates Rd Unit B-1	0.89mi	2/2.0	980 (-6%)	31mo	$295,000	$301	35
153 Slater Rd	1.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+17%)	20mo	$625,000	$514	18
136 Route 40	1.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+18%)	36mo	$215,000	$175	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 9.4%
Equity multiple: 1.60×
Total profit: $50,204
Equity at exit: $169,318

10-year hold

IRR: 11.0%
Equity multiple: 3.02×
Total profit: $168,078
Equity at exit: $293,060

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12496

Home prices YoY: 1.2%
Active inventory: 212
Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,216 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,455/yr
Insurance: −$124
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,598

Max offer price $253,300

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-199	+0% $-302	+5% $-405	+10% $-507
Rent	-10% $-477	-5% $-390	+0% $-302	+5% $-214	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-226	base $-302	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,250
Closing costs: $8,910
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Exterior

Parking: Off-street parking for 3 vehiclesDriveway
Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
Utilities: 100 amp electric service with 220 volts and circuit breakersSeptic tank
Home design: Single family residenceWalk-out basement
Construction: Vinyl sidingBlock foundationShingle (asphalt) roofBuilt with below-grade finished living area
Exterior features: Deck (wrap-around deck)Exterior lightingSecluded, level and private lot

Interior

Kitchen: RangeRefrigeratorDishwasher
Bedrooms: Two first-floor bedrooms
Flooring: Ceramic tileOther flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on first floor)
Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingOil heating
Interior features: Paddle fanSolid surface countersCeramic tile bathDouble pane windowsFinished full walk-out basement
Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $297,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $297,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $297,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $297,000 Active 149 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $297,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $297,000 Active 146 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $297,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $297,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $297,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $297,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $297,000 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $297,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $297,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $297,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $297,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $297,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $297,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $297,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $297,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $297,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $297,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $297,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $297,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $297,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $297,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $297,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $297,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $297,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $297,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $297,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $297,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $297,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $297,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $297,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $297,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $297,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $297,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $297,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $297,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $297,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $297,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $297,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $297,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $297,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $297,000 Active 107 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $297,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $297,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $297,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $297,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $297,000 Active 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,590
− Mortgage interest: −$16,637
− Property taxes: −$4,455
− Insurance: −$1,485
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
− Management: −$2,127
− Depreciation: −$8,640
Taxable loss: −$8,881

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,131
After-tax cash flow: $-1,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,200–$15,600 screening

This renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 75. It features a new kitchen, ceramic tiled bathrooms, and vinyl plank flooring throughout. The exterior includes a custom deck and well-maintained landscaping. The home is ideal for a mountain getaway and is located just minutes from world-class skiing at Windham and Hunter Mountains.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and deck — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both New outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

District: Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District
NCES district ID: 3631590
Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
Median HH income: $46,942
Composite: 42.57/100
National rank: #6842
State rank: #517 of 755 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Windham

Score: 60/100
State rank: #964
US rank: #18888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Greene · 44,963 people
Population (ZIP): 1,241
Household income: $68,173
Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
Severe rent burden: 38% of renters

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 44,963 people
By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
Languages at home: 75% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 5.06%
Current HPI: 425.2138
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Financial Services	10	$950B
#11 JPMorgan Chase New York $278.9B #21 Citigroup New York $170.8B #32 Goldman Sachs New York $126.9B #40 Morgan Stanley New York $107.3B #42 StoneX Group New York $99.9B #58 American Express New York $74.2B #98 TIAA New York $46.9B #273 Mastercard Purchase $28.2B #328 M&T Bank Buffalo $8.8B #392 Voya Financial New York $7.8B
Consumer Goods	9	$162B
#45 PepsiCo Purchase $91.9B #171 Colgate-Palmolive New York $19.5B #207 Estee Lauder New York $15.6B #246 Constellation Brands Victor $10.2B #422 PVH Corp New York $8.6B #364 Tapestry New York $6.7B #420 Ralph Lauren New York $6.6B #460 Steven Madden Long Island City $2.2B #498 Prestige Consumer Healthcare Tarrytown $1.1B
Insurance	4	$225B
#60 MetLife New York $71.0B #69 New York Life Insurance New York $62.6B #99 Travelers Companies New York $46.4B #101 AIG New York $44.9B
Telecommunications	2	$144B
#30 Verizon Communications New York $134.8B #297 Altice USA Long Island City $9.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
#67 Pfizer New York $63.6B #94 Bristol-Myers Squibb New York $48.3B
Media / Entertainment	2	$69B
#295 Warner Bros. Discovery New York $39.9B #269 Paramount Global New York $28.9B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-07-08 Price Changed $297,000 HVCRMLS
2026-07-08 Price Changed $297,000 Global MLS
2026-06-09 Listed $309,777 Global MLS
2026-06-08 Listed $309,777 HVCRMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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