5780 Conley Ct · Pace, FL 32571

$295,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Est $301k · at est. $77/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Arbor Place is a brand new development with sidewalks, underground utilities and a nice community pool. Located in close proximity to SS Dixon Intermediate and Sims Middle School in Pace, FL. Need 4 bedrooms? Our “Rhett” floorplan is the home for you!! It is perfectly laid out for the whole family to enjoy. Trey ceilings in the living room make this an inviting place for all your family movie nights. The open and airy kitchen offers a corner pantry, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, under mount sink and double-sided center island that allows for 3-4 barstools. Bedroom 1 features trey ceilings and connects to the en-suite bathroom. An impressive 5-foot floor to ceiling shower and garden tub make this a relaxing retreat to end your day. This bath also features double vanities, a spacious walk in closet and a separate water closet. This beautiful Craftsman style home includes our SMART HOME SYSTEM technology package, covered back patio as well as Hurricane Fabric Shields for all your doors and windows.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Corner pantry
• Custom touches

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• CUSTOM TOUCHES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Sidewalks; Homeowners association with annual fee (association fee applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical panel; Cable available; Underground utilities; County-maintained road
• Home design: Single-story frame home; Resale property; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Built as one level
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Shingle roof; Central access lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface countertops; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor; All bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Heat pump; Insulation and insulated walls; Ridge vent
• Interior features: Baseboards; Bookcases; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Recessed lighting; Insulated doors; Double pane windows; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $254k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,779 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5845 Danbury Blvd	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+4%)	5mo	$307,000	$167	85
5775 Conley Ct	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+4%)	9mo	$327,400	$178	84
4074 Blaney Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+4%)	0mo	$297,000	$162	84
4067 Blaney Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+4%)	1mo	$306,500	$167	82
4059 Blaney Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+4%)	6mo	$315,000	$172	77
5461 Tucker Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-2%)	1mo	$310,000	$179	61
3956 Harbors Port St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,857 (+5%)	8mo	$315,000	$170	58
5939 Jameson Crk	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (-8%)	9mo	$251,000	$154	56
5658 Derby Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (+8%)	4mo	$399,900	$208	51
6148 Jameson Crk	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,841 (+4%)	10mo	$299,000	$162	49
6148 JAMESON Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,841 (+4%)	10mo	$299,000	$162	49
3963 Tuscany Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,962 (+11%)	6mo	$340,000	$173	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-56,737
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-62,728
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,378 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,139/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,542

Max offer price $272,023

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5768 Conley Ct Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	2017	$2,100	$1.04	14d	1	0.05mi
5849 Danbury Blvd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,100	$1.21	23d	1	0.12mi
5857 Danbury Blvd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,145	$1.29	14d	1	0.12mi
4283 Lancaster Gate Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	2360	$3,800	$1.61	23d	1	0.69mi
3927 Tuscany Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,075	$1.12	23d	1	0.74mi
6169 Autumn Pines Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,895	$1.20	14d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $295,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,139 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,139 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,139
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,283
• − Management: −$2,283
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $42/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a move-in ready property with good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale trim around windows — improves home's appearance
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale trim around windows — improves home's appearance ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+16.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $295,000 PARMLS
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $253,900 PARMLS
• 2020-06-24 Listed $253,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+54.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,139 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.