2637 Drew Cir · Wildwood, FL 32163

$443,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2022 Est $554k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious split floor plan featuring impressive volume ceiling and a fresh modern interior. This newly painted home has 18x18 ceramic tile flooring with carpeting in bedrooms for added comfort. The bright, and inviting kitchen stands out with timeless picket tile backsplash and stainless steel appliances. Highlights include gas utilities, a smartly designed 9 foot center island maximizes space offering double sided cabinet storage. The oversized 2 car garage plus golf car garage features a 2 foot depth extension, offering ample room for your vehicles and toys. The space is finished with professionally installed with a slip resistant epoxy floor for added durability and style. Additional upgr

Key facts

• Modern interior
• Split floor plan
• Kitchen backsplash

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN INTERIOR
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• KITCHEN BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $443k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-631 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,716 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $554,302
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2648 Maymont Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+0%)	9mo	$475,000	$247	80
4434 Shockoe Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+2%)	1mo	$535,000	$274	78
4522 Shockoe Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,927 (+0%)	14mo	$688,000	$357	75
2447 Youngmann Loop	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,998 (+4%)	3mo	$690,000	$345	73
4702 Malone Cir	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,901 (-1%)	10mo	$550,000	$289	71
2484 Lynette Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,996 (+4%)	11mo	$489,000	$245	66
4176 Widmann Pl	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,959 (+2%)	4mo	$499,000	$255	64
2771 Chimborazo Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,924 (+0%)	7mo	$558,000	$290	59
2585 Constance Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-10%)	11mo	$520,000	$301	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $201,047
• Equity at exit: $399,089

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $623,643
• Equity at exit: $860,652

Cash invested: $124,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,323
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,517/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,756

Max offer price $331,472

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-381	-5% $-506	+0% $-631	+5% $-757	+10% $-882
Rent	-10% $-865	-5% $-748	+0% $-631	+5% $-515	+10% $-398
Rate	-1.0pp $-408	-0.5pp $-519	base $-631	+0.5pp $-746	+1.0pp $-863

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,750
• Closing costs: $13,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2910 Monument Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1494	$2,600	$1.74	22d	1	1.01mi
3359 Brianna Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$3,100	$1.96	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $443,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,517 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,517 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,815
• − Property taxes: −$5,517
• − Insurance: −$2,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,839
• − Management: −$2,839
• − Depreciation: −$12,887
• Taxable loss: −$15,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,750
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $443,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+23.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,517 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.