Sweetwater III Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$369,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,455 sqft · SingleFamily · 290 Days on market

↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sweetwater III is a beautifully designed 2-story home that offers a perfect blend of space, style, and functionality. With 4-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms, this floorplan is designed to accommodate a growing family while providing plenty of room for both relaxation and entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the living room, creating a bright and airy space ideal for gathering with family and friends. A charming front porch welcomes you home, offering a peaceful place to unwind. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a huge walk-in closet for ample storage, and an optional tray ceiling that adds a touch of luxury. Upstairs, the spacious game room provides endless opportunities for fun and leisure. The home also includes a covered patio, with the option to extend it, providing a perfect spot for outdoor dining or relaxation. An optional study offers flexibility, making it easy to create a dedicated workspace or home office. The 2-car garage offers ample storage and parking space. Designed with versatility and comfort in mind, the Sweetwater III is the perfect home for those who want room to grow without sacrificing style or convenience.

Key facts

• Optional study
• Huge walk-in closet
• Charming front porch

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• OPTIONAL STUDY

🏗️ New construction. The $369,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $498,608.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $287,459 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.10%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $498,608
• List price: $369,990
• Delta: -25.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620 Rosy Dash Trl	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+3%)	1mo	$395,490	$157	80
252 Bright Alcove Ct	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,563 (+4%)	2mo	$399,000	$156	72
589 Dove Haven Way	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,506 (+2%)	2mo	$392,490	$157	69
415 Cyprus Grove Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,401 (-2%)	2mo	$330,000	$137	68
762 Grand Dale Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,184 (-11%)	1mo	$349,990	$160	67
765 Grand Dale Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,186 (-11%)	2mo	$395,990	$181	67
607 Dove Haven Way	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+3%)	1mo	$383,990	$152	66
639 Dove Haven Way	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+3%)	0mo	$387,990	$154	64
614 Creekview Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,556 (+4%)	1mo	$399,999	$156	58
659 Walkabout Pl	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,233 (-9%)	2mo	$329,990	$148	55
650 Walkabout Pl	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,133 (-13%)	1mo	$320,490	$150	50
707 Walkabout Pl	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,133 (-13%)	1mo	$321,990	$151	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-155,579
• Equity at exit: $74,344

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-231,650
• Equity at exit: $43,110

Cash invested: $139,610 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,615
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$623 /mo · $7,479/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-1,175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,362

Max offer price $328,607

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,652
• Closing costs: $14,958
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	43d	1	0.22mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,900	$1.21	24d	1	0.43mi
252 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2957	$3,175	$1.07	2d	1	0.44mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	24d	1	0.58mi
304 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$3,000	$1.03	18d	1	0.68mi
253 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2687	$2,600	$0.97	43d	1	0.68mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	18d	1	0.71mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	43d	1	0.81mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	24d	1	0.85mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	24d	1	0.85mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	43d	1	0.91mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	43d	1	0.92mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	43d	1	0.93mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	43d	1	0.93mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	43d	1	0.97mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	43d	1	0.98mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	24d	1	1.11mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	3d	1	1.41mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	43d	1	1.45mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,990 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,990 Active 289 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,990 Active 288 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,990 Active 287 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,990 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,990 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,990 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,990 Active 276 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,990 Active 275 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,990 Active 274 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,990 Active 273 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 272 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    price $369,990 1187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    The Sweetwater III is a beautifully designed 2-story home that offers a perfect blend of space, style, and functionality. With 4-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms, this floorplan is designed to accommodate a growing family while providing plenty of room for both relaxation and entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the living room, creating a bright and airy space ideal for gathering with family and friends. A charming front porch welcomes you home, offering a peaceful place to unwind. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a huge walk-in closet for ample storage, and an optional tray ceiling that adds a touch of luxury. Upstairs, the spacious game room provides endless opportunities for fun and leisure. The home also includes a covered patio, with the option to extend it, providing a perfect spot for outdoor dining or relaxation. An optional study offers flexibility, making it easy to create a dedicated workspace or home office. The 2-car garage offers ample storage and parking space. Designed with versatility and comfort in mind, the Sweetwater III is the perfect home for those who want room to grow without sacrificing style or convenience.

16. 2026-01-07
    price $381,990 1187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    The Sweetwater III is a beautifully designed 2-story home that offers a perfect blend of space, style, and functionality. With 4-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms, this floorplan is designed to accommodate a growing family while providing plenty of room for both relaxation and entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the living room, creating a bright and airy space ideal for gathering with family and friends. A charming front porch welcomes you home, offering a peaceful place to unwind. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a huge walk-in closet for ample storage, and an optional tray ceiling that adds a touch of luxury. Upstairs, the spacious game room provides endless opportunities for fun and leisure. The home also includes a covered patio, with the option to extend it, providing a perfect spot for outdoor dining or relaxation. An optional study offers flexibility, making it easy to create a dedicated workspace or home office. The 2-car garage offers ample storage and parking space. Designed with versatility and comfort in mind, the Sweetwater III is the perfect home for those who want room to grow without sacrificing style or convenience.

17. 2025-12-09
    status Active 1187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    The Sweetwater III is a beautifully designed 2-story home that offers a perfect blend of space, style, and functionality. With 4-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms, this floorplan is designed to accommodate a growing family while providing plenty of room for both relaxation and entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the living room, creating a bright and airy space ideal for gathering with family and friends. A charming front porch welcomes you home, offering a peaceful place to unwind. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a huge walk-in closet for ample storage, and an optional tray ceiling that adds a touch of luxury. Upstairs, the spacious game room provides endless opportunities for fun and leisure. The home also includes a covered patio, with the option to extend it, providing a perfect spot for outdoor dining or relaxation. An optional study offers flexibility, making it easy to create a dedicated workspace or home office. The 2-car garage offers ample storage and parking space. Designed with versatility and comfort in mind, the Sweetwater III is the perfect home for those who want room to grow without sacrificing style or convenience.

18. 2025-12-05
    historical 1187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    The Sweetwater III is a beautifully designed 2-story home that offers a perfect blend of space, style, and functionality. With 4-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms, this floorplan is designed to accommodate a growing family while providing plenty of room for both relaxation and entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the living room, creating a bright and airy space ideal for gathering with family and friends. A charming front porch welcomes you home, offering a peaceful place to unwind. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a huge walk-in closet for ample storage, and an optional tray ceiling that adds a touch of luxury. Upstairs, the spacious game room provides endless opportunities for fun and leisure. The home also includes a covered patio, with the option to extend it, providing a perfect spot for outdoor dining or relaxation. An optional study offers flexibility, making it easy to create a dedicated workspace or home office. The 2-car garage offers ample storage and parking space. Designed with versatility and comfort in mind, the Sweetwater III is the perfect home for those who want room to grow without sacrificing style or convenience.

19. 2025-08-28
    listed $391,990 Active 1187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1187 chars)

    The Sweetwater III is a beautifully designed 2-story home that offers a perfect blend of space, style, and functionality. With 4-5 bedrooms and 2-3 bathrooms, this floorplan is designed to accommodate a growing family while providing plenty of room for both relaxation and entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the living room, creating a bright and airy space ideal for gathering with family and friends. A charming front porch welcomes you home, offering a peaceful place to unwind. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a huge walk-in closet for ample storage, and an optional tray ceiling that adds a touch of luxury. Upstairs, the spacious game room provides endless opportunities for fun and leisure. The home also includes a covered patio, with the option to extend it, providing a perfect spot for outdoor dining or relaxation. An optional study offers flexibility, making it easy to create a dedicated workspace or home office. The 2-car garage offers ample storage and parking space. Designed with versatility and comfort in mind, the Sweetwater III is the perfect home for those who want room to grow without sacrificing style or convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,930
• − Property taxes: −$7,479
• − Insurance: −$2,493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,760
• − Management: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$14,505
• Taxable loss: −$23,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,623
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $381,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-28 Listed $391,990 Zillow