6431 220 · Plum, TX 78945

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 425 Days on market

Built 1960 Fair condition 1.30 ac lot $109/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• La Grange ISD (town): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #300 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 425 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 425 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,927
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -63.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-18,877
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,386
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78945

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 425 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 424 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 423 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 422 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 420 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 419 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 416 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 415 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 414 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 413 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 410 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 409 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 408 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 407 DOM
15. 2026-01-11
    price $150,000
16. 2025-09-19
    price $180,000
17. 2025-04-19
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$349
• After-tax cash flow: $1,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant repairs to the fencing and landscaping to improve its curb appeal and overall condition, making it a moderate renovation project.

Repairs flagged

• Major Fencing — Damaged and overgrown with vegetation, requiring replacement or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing repair — Improving curb appeal and enhancing the property's overall appearance would attract more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Fencing · Damaged and overgrown with vegetation, requiring replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and fencing repair — Improving curb appeal and enhancing the property's overall appearance would attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Grange ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826100
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,243
• Composite: 37.11/100
• National rank: #4494
• State rank: #300 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plum, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,459

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,343 people
• By 2030: 26,940 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 27,898 · +5.9%
• By 2050: 28,623 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 31,155 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 31,557 · +19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hungarian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.88%
• Current HPI: 218.7015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listed $200,000 HARMLS