22 Peninsula Dr · Noyack, NY 11963

$2,050,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1989 0.49 ac lot $646/sqft · 13% below area Est $2369k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Minutes from Sag Harbor Cove and Main Street shopping. Perfect mother-daughter complete with charming front porch on a large, landscaped shy half acre with mature cedars. Living room with fireplace and skylights, lovely country kitchen and dining, and a family room that opens to a spacious deck. Amazing amount of storage, even a full basement with workshop with outside access. Meticulously maintained by the original owners, it's move in ready or awaits your updates. Enjoy the best of the East End this summer with plenty of room for relatives or guests complete with nearby access to the cove.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Level yard
• Full basement

Tags

• PRIVATE ENTRY
• OPEN LIVING DINING EATING AREA
• PRIVATE DECK
• FULL BASEMENT
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LEVEL YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.05M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($76k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $2.05M).
• Recommended offer: $1.93M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,371/mo this rent would consume 220% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $202k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $188k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $574k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$325k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.93M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $2.05M implies a 3317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,927,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.27%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,368,948
• List price: $2,050,000
• Delta: -13.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Island View Dr W	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,220 (+1%)	1mo	$1,999,000	$621	54
15 Sims Dr	0.16mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,000 (-6%)	21mo	$6,550,000	$2,183	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $1,530,291
• Equity at exit: $1,726,469

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.78×
• Total profit: $4,468,066
• Equity at exit: $3,602,166

Cash invested: $574,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,750
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,120/yr
• Insurance: −$854
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,908
• Net cashflow: $6,348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,335

Max offer price $2,050,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,509	-5% $6,928	+0% $6,348	+5% $5,768	+10% $5,188
Rent	-10% $4,502	-5% $5,425	+0% $6,348	+5% $7,271	+10% $8,194
Rate	-1.0pp $7,381	-0.5pp $6,870	base $6,348	+0.5pp $5,817	+1.0pp $5,277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $512,500
• Closing costs: $61,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4056 Noyack Rd Sag Harbor, NY	4.0	3.0	2323	$35,000	$15.07	22d	1	0.20mi
70 Ridge Rd W Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	3.0	2405	$65,000	$27.03	25d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,050,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,050,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,050,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $2,050,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,150,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,150,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $2,150,000 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Minutes from Sag Harbor Cove and Main Street shopping. Perfect mother-daughter complete with charming front porch on a large, landscaped shy half acre with mature cedars. Living room with fireplace and skylights, lovely country kitchen and dining, and a family room that opens to a spacious deck. Amazing amount of storage, even a full basement with workshop with outside access. Meticulously maintained by the original owners, it's move in ready or awaits your updates. Enjoy the best of the East End this summer with plenty of room for relatives or guests complete with nearby access to the cove.

16. 1987-04-29
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,120 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,382 · $1,699/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,263/yr (+$1,189/mo · 233.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $280,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$114,832
• − Property taxes: −$6,120
• − Insurance: −$10,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,436
• − Management: −$22,436
• − Depreciation: −$59,636
• Taxable income: $44,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,737
• After-tax cash flow: $65,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3483.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $2,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $6,120 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.