4126 Mountain Laurel Dr · Hickory Creek, TX 75065

$614,900

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,841 sqft lot $201/sqft · at area comps Est $615k · at est. $63/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly available in Sycamore Cove, a sought-after Hickory Creek neighborhood with a limited number of homes on the peninsula, 4126 Mountain Laurel Drive blends comfort, function, and entertaining space with 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, a built-in bar on the main level, and an upstairs media room with built-in surround sound speakers. Thoughtful updates include zebra blinds, upgraded light fixtures, and luxury vinyl flooring in the primary bedroom and throughout the upstairs, creating a fresh, cohesive look with easy maintenance. The versatile floor plan offers generous bedroom space, inviting living areas, and an ideal setup for movie nights, game days, or casual gatherings with friends and family. Out back, the built-in cabana creates an inviting retreat for relaxing and entertaining in style. The location also provides convenient access to Lake Lewisville, Sycamore Bend Park, and Arrowhead Park, adding boating, fishing, trails, and green space to the lifestyle this home offers. Lender-paid 1-year rate buydown available. Enjoy a lower payment in year one at no cost to you. Ask for details!

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $615k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($70k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $615k).
• Recommended offer: $578k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 2.6% in Hickory Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#238 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Dallas ISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #413 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $172k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($578k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $578,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.51%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $614,713
• List price: $614,900
• Delta: 0.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4115 Mountain Laurel Dr	0.05mi	5/4.0	3,216 (+5%)	2mo	$615,000	$191	85
4036 Kyles Landing Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (-5%)	10mo	$619,000	$214	64
4007 Kyles Landing Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,060 (+0%)	22mo	$599,990	$196	61
108 Citation Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,091 (+1%)	21mo	$724,900	$235	36
216 Shadow Creek Ln	0.73mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,810 (-8%)	10mo	$700,000	$249	36
231 Secretariat Dr	0.47mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,399 (+11%)	24mo	$799,999	$235	30
201 Citation Ln	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,626 (-14%)	15mo	$664,000	$253	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $270,850
• Equity at exit: $91,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $713,638
• Equity at exit: $53,165

Cash invested: $172,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75065

• Home prices YoY: -6.8%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax from tax record: −$812 /mo · $9,750/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,703
• Net cashflow: $5,813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,514

Max offer price $614,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,161	-5% $5,987	+0% $5,813	+5% $5,639	+10% $5,465
Rent	-10% $4,796	-5% $5,304	+0% $5,813	+5% $6,321	+10% $6,830
Rate	-1.0pp $6,123	-0.5pp $5,969	base $5,813	+0.5pp $5,654	+1.0pp $5,492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,725
• Closing costs: $18,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
123 Derby Ln Lake Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2535	$2,900	$1.14	8d	1	1.00mi
1017 Almond St Hickory Creek, TX	4.0	2.0	2103	$2,750	$1.31	17d	1	1.20mi
201 Barkley Dr Unit 1391266P Hickory Creek, TX	4.0	3.0	3239	$15,242	$4.71	24d	1	1.26mi
201 Barkley Dr Lake Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	3243	$10,500	$3.24	22d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $614,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $614,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $614,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $614,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $614,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $614,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $614,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $614,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $614,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $619,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $619,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $619,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $619,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $625,000 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    Newly available in Sycamore Cove, a sought-after Hickory Creek neighborhood with a limited number of homes on the peninsula, 4126 Mountain Laurel Drive blends comfort, function, and entertaining space with 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, a built-in bar on the main level, and an upstairs media room with built-in surround sound speakers. Thoughtful updates include zebra blinds, upgraded light fixtures, and luxury vinyl flooring in the primary bedroom and throughout the upstairs, creating a fresh, cohesive look with easy maintenance. The versatile floor plan offers generous bedroom space, inviting living areas, and an ideal setup for movie nights, game days, or casual gatherings with friends and family. Out back, the built-in cabana creates an inviting retreat for relaxing and entertaining in style. The location also provides convenient access to Lake Lewisville, Sycamore Bend Park, and Arrowhead Park, adding boating, fishing, trails, and green space to the lifestyle this home offers. Lender-paid 1-year rate buydown available. Enjoy a lower payment in year one at no cost to you. Ask for details!

15. 2026-04-13
    listed $635,000 Active 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    Newly available in Sycamore Cove, a sought-after Hickory Creek neighborhood with a limited number of homes on the peninsula, 4126 Mountain Laurel Drive blends comfort, function, and entertaining space with 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, a built-in bar on the main level, and an upstairs media room with built-in surround sound speakers. Thoughtful updates include zebra blinds, upgraded light fixtures, and luxury vinyl flooring in the primary bedroom and throughout the upstairs, creating a fresh, cohesive look with easy maintenance. The versatile floor plan offers generous bedroom space, inviting living areas, and an ideal setup for movie nights, game days, or casual gatherings with friends and family. Out back, the built-in cabana creates an inviting retreat for relaxing and entertaining in style. The location also provides convenient access to Lake Lewisville, Sycamore Bend Park, and Arrowhead Park, adding boating, fishing, trails, and green space to the lifestyle this home offers. Lender-paid 1-year rate buydown available. Enjoy a lower payment in year one at no cost to you. Ask for details!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,750 · $812/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,253 · $938/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,503/yr (+$125/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $154,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,444
• − Property taxes: −$9,750
• − Insurance: −$3,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,358
• − Management: −$12,358
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$17,888
• Taxable income: $63,842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,322
• After-tax cash flow: $54,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, modern home in Sycamore Cove offers a good balance of style and functionality, with minimal repairs needed and potential for further value through landscaping and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826430
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $76,645
• Composite: 34.13/100
• National rank: #5287
• State rank: #413 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hickory Creek

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #5782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hickory Creek, TX
• City population: 13,046
• Population (ZIP): 13,046

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Korean 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.91%
• Current HPI: 300.0981
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $625,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $635,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+92.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,750 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.