None · Hereford, TX 79045

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1970 14 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the possibilities with this 14.09-acre property offering space, flexibility, and endless potential. The land is fully fenced with electricity and water available, making it ready for your vision. An existing home sits on the property and could be remodeled or removed to build your dream home. With * * no restrictions and located outside city limits, this property is perfect for those seeking privacy, room to grow, or investment opportunities. Whether you're looking to build, renovate, or create your own rural retreat, this property offers the freedom to make it your own.

Key facts

• 14.09 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 87 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Hereford ISD (town): math 41% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #434 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Deaf Smith County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deaf Smith County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.21%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,794
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $14,678
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79045

• Home prices YoY: -11.2%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,467/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $264	+0% $230	+5% $196	+10% $162
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $178	+0% $230	+5% $281	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $290	-0.5pp $260	base $230	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $119,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover the possibilities with this 14.09-acre property offering space, flexibility, and endless potential. The land is fully fenced with electricity and water available, making it ready for your vision. An existing home sits on the property and could be remodeled or removed to build your dream home. With * * no restrictions and located outside city limits, this property is perfect for those seeking privacy, room to grow, or investment opportunities. Whether you're looking to build, renovate, or create your own rural retreat, this property offers the freedom to make it your own.

19. 2026-05-04
    price $119,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover the possibilities with this 14.09-acre property offering space, flexibility, and endless potential. The land is fully fenced with electricity and water available, making it ready for your vision. An existing home sits on the property and could be remodeled or removed to build your dream home. With * * no restrictions and located outside city limits, this property is perfect for those seeking privacy, room to grow, or investment opportunities. Whether you're looking to build, renovate, or create your own rural retreat, this property offers the freedom to make it your own.

20. 2026-03-25
    listed $125,000 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover the possibilities with this 14.09-acre property offering space, flexibility, and endless potential. The land is fully fenced with electricity and water available, making it ready for your vision. An existing home sits on the property and could be remodeled or removed to build your dream home. With * * no restrictions and located outside city limits, this property is perfect for those seeking privacy, room to grow, or investment opportunities. Whether you're looking to build, renovate, or create your own rural retreat, this property offers the freedom to make it your own.

21. 2026-03-25
    listed $125,000 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover the possibilities with this 14.09-acre property offering space, flexibility, and endless potential. The land is fully fenced with electricity and water available, making it ready for your vision. An existing home sits on the property and could be remodeled or removed to build your dream home. With * * no restrictions and located outside city limits, this property is perfect for those seeking privacy, room to grow, or investment opportunities. Whether you're looking to build, renovate, or create your own rural retreat, this property offers the freedom to make it your own.

22. 2025-05-30
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2025-05-30
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2025-05-30
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2025-04-22
    status Pending
26. 2025-04-22
    status Pending
27. 2025-04-22
    status Pending
28. 2025-04-11
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2025-04-11
    historical Active Under Contract
30. 2025-04-08
    price $115,000
31. 2025-04-08
    price $115,000
32. 2025-04-08
    price $115,000
33. 2025-02-17
    listed $125,000 Active
34. 2025-02-05
    listed $125,000 Active
35. 2025-02-05
    listed $125,000 Active
36. 2024-07-03
    status Active
37. 2024-06-05
    status Pending
38. 2024-02-28
    status Active
39. 2024-02-28
    price $175,000
40. 2024-02-28
    price $175,000
41. 2024-02-23
    historical Active Under Contract
42. 2023-12-18
    price $162,500
43. 2023-12-18
    price $162,500
44. 2023-11-03
    price $174,900
45. 2023-11-03
    price $174,900
46. 2023-09-19
    price $189,900
47. 2023-09-19
    price $189,900
48. 2023-08-16
    listed $199,900 Active
49. 1992-03-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$727/yr (+$61/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,467
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$211
• After-tax cash flow: $2,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hereford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,593
• Composite: 33.49/100
• National rank: #5446
• State rank: #434 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hereford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,441

Population outlook (Deaf Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,019 people
• By 2030: 17,665 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 17,099 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 16,479 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 14,130 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 10,352 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 32% White 21% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 58%

Political lean MEDSL · Deaf Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.6) · D 23.8% · R 75.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -51.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.6 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+41.1 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.57%
• Current HPI: 225.7837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $119,900 PARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $119,900 AARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $125,000 AARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $125,000 PARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Sold (MLS) — PARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Pending — PARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Pending — AARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Contingent — AARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $115,000 PARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $115,000 AARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $125,000 LARMLS
• 2025-02-05 Listed $125,000 PARMLS
• 2025-02-05 Listed $125,000 AARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Pending — PARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $175,000 PARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $175,000 AARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $162,500 PARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $162,500 AARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $174,900 PARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $174,900 AARMLS
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $189,900 PARMLS
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $189,900 AARMLS
• 2023-08-16 Listed $199,900 PARMLS
• 1992-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,467 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.