145 Jana Cir · Auburndale, FL 33823

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured public records · 262 Days on market

Built 1986 6,865 sqft lot $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautiful bottie-brush tree greats you as you as you view this home. From your enclosed Fl. room you come into the open living room. The eating nook in the kitchen and the dining room join the living room. There is a pass through from the kitchen to the dining area. The second bedroom has a walk in closet. The large master bedroom has a walk in closet. The master bathroom has new faucets and a new vanity. This home has all new double pane windows, a one month old hot water heater, and a 10 x 20 laundry and storage shed. The carport is extra long and a new vapor barrier has been installed . The home has been leveled . This home is ready for you to enjoy.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Lakefront community
• Large bay window

Tags

• LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY
• LOW HOA FEE
• LARGE BAY WINDOW
• HURRICANE RATED WINDOWS
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Public records list living area ~1,000 sq ft; Lot approximately 0.16 acres (60 x 90); Private lake access to Lake Mariana with a private boat ramp; Road surface: Asphalt
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee $39 (required) — association approval required; Association amenities: Clubhouse, Storage; Senior community; Pets allowed: Cats and dogs (max pet weight ~20 lbs); Total monthly fees $39, total annual fees $468

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Entry faces northeast
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as completed (manufactured)
• Exterior features: Storage; Cleared and landscaped lot; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Outside laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.23%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $12,508
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $54,911
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $432/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $560	+0% $523	+5% $486	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $389	-5% $456	+0% $523	+5% $589	+10% $656
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $556	base $523	+0.5pp $489	+1.0pp $455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Jana Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	0.02mi
609 Marianna Rd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,730	$1.46	24d	1	0.15mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	24d	1	0.68mi
249 Century Blvd Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	3d	1	0.85mi
192 Julie Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	24d	1	0.96mi
912 Lake Jessie Dr Unit A Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	3d	1	1.13mi
53 Sunset Cir Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,100	$0.94	3d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 244 DOM
14. 2025-09-29
    listed $130,000 Active
15. 2025-06-05
    historical
16. 2025-04-21
    listed $125,000 Active
17. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus $118,000
18. 2022-05-04
    soldstatus $118,000 Closed 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    A beautiful bottie-brush tree greats you as you as you view this home. From your enclosed Fl. room you come into the open living room. The eating nook in the kitchen and the dining room join the living room. There is a pass through from the kitchen to the dining area. The second bedroom has a walk in closet. The large master bedroom has a walk in closet. The master bathroom has new faucets and a new vanity. This home has all new double pane windows, a one month old hot water heater, and a 10 x 20 laundry and storage shed. The carport is extra long and a new vapor barrier has been installed . The home has been leveled . This home is ready for you to enjoy.

19. 2022-03-28
    status Pending 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    A beautiful bottie-brush tree greats you as you as you view this home. From your enclosed Fl. room you come into the open living room. The eating nook in the kitchen and the dining room join the living room. There is a pass through from the kitchen to the dining area. The second bedroom has a walk in closet. The large master bedroom has a walk in closet. The master bathroom has new faucets and a new vanity. This home has all new double pane windows, a one month old hot water heater, and a 10 x 20 laundry and storage shed. The carport is extra long and a new vapor barrier has been installed . The home has been leveled . This home is ready for you to enjoy.

20. 2022-03-25
    listed $125,000 Active 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    A beautiful bottie-brush tree greats you as you as you view this home. From your enclosed Fl. room you come into the open living room. The eating nook in the kitchen and the dining room join the living room. There is a pass through from the kitchen to the dining area. The second bedroom has a walk in closet. The large master bedroom has a walk in closet. The master bathroom has new faucets and a new vanity. This home has all new double pane windows, a one month old hot water heater, and a 10 x 20 laundry and storage shed. The carport is extra long and a new vapor barrier has been installed . The home has been leveled . This home is ready for you to enjoy.

21. 2020-05-15
    soldstatus $78,000 Sold
22. 2020-03-21
    status Pending
23. 2020-03-17
    listed $79,900 Active
24. 2017-03-07
    soldstatus $45,900
25. 2017-03-06
    soldstatus $45,900 Sold
26. 2017-02-18
    status Pending
27. 2017-02-13
    listed $45,900 Active
28. 2014-03-10
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold
29. 2013-02-10
    listed $42,000
30. 1987-10-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $432 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 149.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$432
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,621
• − Management: −$1,621
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,403
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,057
• After-tax cash flow: $5,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1200.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-04 Sold (MLS) $118,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-25 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-15 Sold (MLS) $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-17 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records
• 2017-03-06 Sold (MLS) $45,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-13 Listed $45,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-10 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-10 Listed $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $432 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.