18749 US Highway 41 · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1957 0.37 ac lot Est $212k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Concrete Block Home On Over 1/3 Acre with Hwy 41 Frontage. Attached 1 Car Garage. Large Kitchen. Sold "As Is With Right To Inspect". Great Investment for Some Lucky Buyer! Hurry On This One As It Is Definitely Priced To SELL!

Key facts

• 0.37-acre property
• Natural light
• Functional layout

Tags

• 0.37-ACRE PROPERTY
• NO HOA
• OVERSIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot size about 0.37 acres (approximately 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA (association not present)

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed/BB internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east; Residential zoning (R3); Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported by appraiser
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Asphalt road access; Street lights in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Cork
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (inside); Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Mary Giella Elementary School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 596 students, 76% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $190k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,000 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,536
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
156 Grand Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	936 (0%)	14mo	$224,900	$240	71
186 Grand Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+8%)	4mo	$235,000	$233	55
18127 US Highway 41	0.71mi	2/1.0	832 (-11%)	2mo	$188,100	$226	46
16044 Stur St	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,074 (+15%)	12mo	$230,000	$214	43
148 Husek St	0.70mi	2/1.5	1,000 (+7%)	14mo	$205,000	$205	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,595
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,692
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $433/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,406

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $294	+0% $240	+5% $186	+10% $132
Rent	-10% $105	-5% $172	+0% $240	+5% $307	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $288	base $240	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15592 Enclave WAY Masaryktown, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$1,710	$1.64	0d	22	0.74mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   price $189,900
3. 2026-04-22
   status Active
4. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-14
   price $199,900
6. 2026-03-31
   listed $210,000 Active
7. 2008-12-16
   soldstatus $50,000
8. 2008-12-15
   soldstatus $50,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Concrete Block Home On Over 1/3 Acre with Hwy 41 Frontage. Attached 1 Car Garage. Large Kitchen. Sold "As Is With Right To Inspect". Great Investment for Some Lucky Buyer! Hurry On This One As It Is Definitely Priced To SELL!

9. 2008-10-23
   listed $59,900 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Concrete Block Home On Over 1/3 Acre with Hwy 41 Frontage. Attached 1 Car Garage. Large Kitchen. Sold "As Is With Right To Inspect". Great Investment for Some Lucky Buyer! Hurry On This One As It Is Definitely Priced To SELL!

10. 1991-07-01
    soldstatus $40,000
11. 1988-06-01
    soldstatus $30,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $433 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,143/yr (+$95/mo · 264.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$433
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$74
• After-tax cash flow: $2,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+514.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-15 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-23 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1988-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $433 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.