11955 Little Creek Hwy · Mechanicsburg, VA 24084

$42,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2003 2.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your chance to own a level 2.9 acres along with a 2 bedroom home joining Little Creek and a stones throw from the Jefferson National Forest. This home has new paint throughout, tilt windows and a covered front and back porch. In the yard you have lots of flowers and landscaping along with a red heart cherry tree to enjoy!. There is a small garage out back for all your toys. Property lays the best you can find and joins beautiful Little Creek. Make your appointment today.

Key facts

• Mountain views
• 2.9 acre lot
• Built 2003

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional financial details provided
• Financial info: No investment or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; 900 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Approximately 2.9 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: No washer/dryer or utility room details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bland County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #23 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Bland County Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 371 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 32% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Bland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.90%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $27,705
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $68,667
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24084

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $370/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $410

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $553	+0% $541	+5% $529	+10% $517
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $498	+0% $541	+5% $585	+10% $628
Rate	-1.0pp $562	-0.5pp $552	base $541	+0.5pp $530	+1.0pp $519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $42,000 Active
2. 2022-08-29
   soldstatus $130,000
3. 2022-08-25
   soldstatus $130,000 483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   Here is your chance to own a level 2.9 acres along with a 2 bedroom home joining Little Creek and a stones throw from the Jefferson National Forest. This home has new paint throughout, tilt windows and a covered front and back porch. In the yard you have lots of flowers and landscaping along with a red heart cherry tree to enjoy!. There is a small garage out back for all your toys. Property lays the best you can find and joins beautiful Little Creek. Make your appointment today.

4. 2022-06-21
   listed $129,500 483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   Here is your chance to own a level 2.9 acres along with a 2 bedroom home joining Little Creek and a stones throw from the Jefferson National Forest. This home has new paint throughout, tilt windows and a covered front and back porch. In the yard you have lots of flowers and landscaping along with a red heart cherry tree to enjoy!. There is a small garage out back for all your toys. Property lays the best you can find and joins beautiful Little Creek. Make your appointment today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $370 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $370 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$370
• − Insurance: −$876
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,052
• − Management: −$1,052
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $6,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $5,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100390
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,048
• Composite: 59.56/100
• National rank: #917
• State rank: #23 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mechanicsburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,860

Population outlook (Bland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,172 people
• By 2030: 5,928 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 5,402 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 4,926 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 4,051 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 3,028 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -39.4pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+67.8 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+39.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.37%
• Current HPI: 170.282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-67.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $42,000 NRVMLS
• 2022-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-25 Sold (MLS) $130,000 SWVAR
• 2022-06-21 Listed $129,500 SWVAR

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $370 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.