2710 Filmore St · Shark River Hills, NJ 07719

$599,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1954 10,018 sqft lot $407/sqft · 14% below area Est $699k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

COMING SOON SHOWINGS START 5/16. Exceptional opportunity to renovate or build your dream custom home on a rare 100x100 lot tucked away at the end of a quiet dead-end street. Offering outstanding privacy in a highly desirable neighborhood, this property is ideally located just minutes from local beaches, Shark River, Route 18, and the Garden State Parkway. Situated within the sought-after Wall Township School District, this is a unique chance to create the perfect home in a prime location with endless potential. Coming Soon Showings Begin May 16th

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Oil above-ground heating; No central cooling (multi units)
• Interior features: No fireplaces; Full, partially finished basement with walk-out access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $519k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $451k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $451k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Shark River Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#297 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wall Township Public School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #145 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade D, #256 of 1,303 statewide, top 22%, 501 students, 10% FRL); Wall Intermediate School (math 33% / reading 58%, grade D+, #143 of 431 statewide, top 34%, 763 students, 9% FRL); Wall High School (math 32% / reading 61%, grade D-, #129 of 399 statewide, top 33%, 936 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,512/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 513% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $599k implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $451,185 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $698,866
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -14.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2711 Johnson St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (+6%)	1mo	$815,000	$521	77
3008 Belmar Blvd	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,469 (-0%)	13mo	$690,000	$470	66
2628 E Hurley Pond Rd	0.51mi	4/1.5	1,345 (-9%)	1mo	$485,000	$361	61
2913 Garfield St	0.33mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,504 (+2%)	18mo	$540,000	$359	61
2710 Johnson St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-14%)	4mo	$700,000	$556	59
2808 Woolley Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,626 (+10%)	7mo	$425,000	$261	57
2006 Lincoln Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,269 (-14%)	15mo	$455,000	$359	53
1611 Dumont Ter	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-10%)	1mo	$732,500	$552	50
2909 Arthur St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,644 (+12%)	11mo	$530,000	$322	46
394 Deuce Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (+12%)	5mo	$615,000	$372	35
2209 Shore Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (-6%)	19mo	$691,500	$500	33
1635 18th Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,258 (-14%)	18mo	$575,000	$457	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-101,905
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-17,174
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07719

• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$624 /mo · $7,486/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$947
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,082

Max offer price $519,461

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-281	+0% $-450	+5% $-620	+10% $-789
Rent	-10% $-807	-5% $-628	+0% $-450	+5% $-272	+10% $-94
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-298	base $-450	+0.5pp $-605	+1.0pp $-763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3400 Aspen Cir Wall Township, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$4,598	$4.07	0d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $599,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $599,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $599,000 Active 552-char remark
16. 2026-05-12
    historical $599,000 552-char remark
17. 1987-08-07
    soldstatus $164,900
18. 1985-08-01
    soldstatus $98,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,486 · $624/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,200 · $933/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,715/yr (+$310/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$7,486
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,331
• − Management: −$4,331
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$15,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,835
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wall Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416890
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $92,842
• Composite: 44.31/100
• National rank: #2831
• State rank: #145 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Shark River Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #8953

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,138
• Household income: $119,828
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 513.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Guatemala, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -537.99%
• Current HPI: 379.3961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.08%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+508.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $599,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $599,000 MOMLS
• 1987-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $164,900 Public Records
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,486 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.