22014 Sovereign Heights Ln · Houston, TX 77073

$264,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,937 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2022 3,641 sqft lot Est $234k · 13% over $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Professional pictures coming soon. Don’t miss this stunning 2-story home in Imperial Heights, Houston, TX! Whether you’re a homeowner searching for a great deal in a desirable neighborhood or a rental property investor looking for a strong long-term opportunity, this home is worth seeing. The Devonhurst floor plan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a move-in ready layout designed for comfort and function. The open-concept first floor is perfect for entertaining, with a modern peninsula kitchen, granite countertops, 42-inch cabinets, stainless steel appliances, blinds, and plenty of workspace. Upstairs, all bedrooms offer privacy, including a spacious Owner’s Suite with a soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio and fully landscaped yard, perfect for relaxing or attracting quality tenants. Homes like this do not sit long. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• 3,641 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carolee Booker Elementary (math 24% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 765 students, 91% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,725 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,377
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
914 Redcrest Springs Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,946 (+0%)	4mo	$220,000	$113	74
22107 King Heights Ln	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,673 (-14%)	1mo	$270,000	$161	73
22215 Queenbury Hills Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,152 (+11%)	2mo	$259,990	$121	71
927 Redcrest Springs Ct	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,991 (+3%)	8mo	$224,000	$113	66
1442 Oxford Meadow Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,098 (+8%)	4mo	$239,900	$114	64
1010 Willow West Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,760 (-9%)	2mo	$240,000	$136	62
915 N Oak Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,730 (-11%)	5mo	$249,500	$144	61
22238 Queenbury Hills Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,221 (+15%)	4mo	$250,000	$113	60
747 Oak West	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,768 (-9%)	2mo	$259,999	$147	56
1126 Wabash Elm St	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,870 (-4%)	8mo	$220,000	$118	54
16603 N Mist Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,720 (-11%)	3mo	$250,000	$145	46
16527 N Mist Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,200 (+14%)	5mo	$249,900	$114	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-43,354
• Equity at exit: $68,074

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-59,944
• Equity at exit: $75,055

Cash invested: $74,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$571 /mo · $6,855/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,666

Max offer price $202,725

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-202	-5% $-277	+0% $-352	+5% $-427	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-440	+0% $-352	+5% $-265	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-219	-0.5pp $-285	base $-352	+0.5pp $-421	+1.0pp $-491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,238
• Closing costs: $7,948
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1430 Great Easton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,825	$1.16	0d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,950 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,950 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 687-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $264,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,855 · $571/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,855 · $571/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,841
• − Property taxes: −$6,855
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,708
• Taxable loss: −$8,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,105
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11943.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $264,950 HARMLS
• 2023-09-20 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-10 Listed $2,200 HARMLS

Property tax history

+170.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,855 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.