646 Baker St · Hempstead, TX 77445

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1960 6,250 sqft lot $84/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The owner is open to looking at all reasonable offers. Priced below tax value! 2 Homes on a Residential lot located within the city limits of Hempstead, Texas, offering a prime opportunity for redevelopment or investment. The property has electricity, public water, and public sewer available. Situated in a convenient location within walking distance to Hempstead High School. The property includes two existing homes that are considered fixer-uppers or potential tear-downs. Property is being sold AS-IS; seller will make no repairs. Structures may be salvageable, but no warranties are expressed or implied regarding condition. Buyer to conduct all due diligence regarding zoning, use, and redevelopment options. Excellent opportunity for builders, investors wanting rental property, or buyers seeking an in-town residential lot with utilities already in place.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Two existing homes
• Public water

Tags

• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER
• TWO EXISTING HOMES
• UTILITIES ALREADY IN PLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($281/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($908 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in Hempstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,099 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, schools F.
• Hempstead ISD (town): math 16% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #795 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,783
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -55.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Kosse St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (+2%)	11mo	$160,000	$155	67
2029 6th St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	12mo	$185,000	$171	66
1936 10th St	0.21mi	2/1.0	925 (-8%)	13mo	$165,000	$178	66
1335 3rd St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-10%)	6mo	$100,000	$110	52
1620 2nd St	0.41mi	2/2.0	896 (-11%)	13mo	$99,000	$110	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $47,863
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $139,935
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77445

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $908 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,556/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $879

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $47	+0% $23	+5% $-1	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $-12	+0% $23	+5% $59	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $66	-0.5pp $45	base $23	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1845 5th St Hempstead, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$700	$1.00	44d	1	0.12mi
2000 4th St Hempstead, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$830	$1.19	44d	1	0.22mi
1246 5th St Hempstead, TX	2.0	1.5	1353	$1,400	$1.03	11d	1	0.49mi
1235 11th St Unit 15 Hempstead, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	44d	1	0.61mi
1235 11th St Apt 8 Hempstead, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	45d	1	0.61mi
1046 15th St Hempstead, TX	2.0	1.0	884	$1,100	$1.24	13d	1	0.83mi
302 16th St Hempstead, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,450	$1.03	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-01-30
   listed $85,000 Active 870-char remark

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   The owner is open to looking at all reasonable offers. Priced below tax value! 2 Homes on a Residential lot located within the city limits of Hempstead, Texas, offering a prime opportunity for redevelopment or investment. The property has electricity, public water, and public sewer available. Situated in a convenient location within walking distance to Hempstead High School. The property includes two existing homes that are considered fixer-uppers or potential tear-downs. Property is being sold AS-IS; seller will make no repairs. Structures may be salvageable, but no warranties are expressed or implied regarding condition. Buyer to conduct all due diligence regarding zoning, use, and redevelopment options. Excellent opportunity for builders, investors wanting rental property, or buyers seeking an in-town residential lot with utilities already in place.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,556 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,556 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,556
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$872
• − Management: −$872
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$1,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hempstead ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,396
• Composite: 14.92/100
• National rank: #9371
• State rank: #795 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hempstead

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1099
• US rank: #19446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hempstead, TX
• City population: 14,943
• Population (ZIP): 14,943

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 34% White 32% Black 31% Two or more races 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.43%
• Current HPI: 359.93
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $85,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,556 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.