104 Smith St · Hillsboro, TX 76645

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

1,960 sqft lot Est $143k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom 1 bath home with some updates. Home features include carpeted living and bedroom areas, laminate flooring in kitchen, washer and dryer hookups, and a gas tankless water heater. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable and manageable home under 800 sq ft with minimal yard to maintain. Sold AS IS. Schedule a showing to see it for yourself!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• 1,960 sq ft lot
• Listed 17 days

Tags

• CARPETED LIVING AREAS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS
• GAS TANKLESS WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Closing/funding possession; Standard listing conditions
• Financial info: Listing available for cash and conventional terms
• HOA & community: No association; Community has curbs and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: City sewer; City water; Curbs; Sidewalk
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Not attached to another property; Deed restrictions
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Gutters; Interior lot; Utilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (approx. 15 x 12); Second bedroom on main level (approx. 12 x 6)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level (approx. 7 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); No built-in heating system listed
• Interior features: High speed internet available; Paneling; One living area; Four total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($940 rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.7% in Hillsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#803 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hillsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #370 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hillsboro El (704 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.85%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,472
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Peabody St	0.70mi	2/1.0	738 (-6%)	8mo	$135,000	$183	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,114
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $18,890
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76645

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $924/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 N Church St Hillsboro, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$865	$0.99	44d	2	0.09mi
119 E Walnut St Hillsboro, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	21d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 347-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $79,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,446 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$522/yr (+$44/mo · 56.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$924
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$902
• − Management: −$902
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $1,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$344
• After-tax cash flow: $2,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823280
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,483
• Composite: 35.12/100
• National rank: #5016
• State rank: #370 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hillsboro

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #803
• US rank: #14657

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hillsboro, TX
• City population: 11,321
• Population (ZIP): 11,321

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.83%
• Current HPI: 248.3182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $79,000 NTREIS
• 2008-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $924 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.