20090 Northcliff Dr · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$319,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition 3,698 sqft lot Est $284k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring fresh interior and exterior paint, new luxury vinyl plank flooring, new carpet, and tile in the primary bath. The inviting living room offers a fireplace with built-in shelving. The kitchen is well-equipped with a center island, built-in desk, stainless steel appliances, built-in microwave, and fresh white cabinetry with ample storage. Ceiling fans throughout and a dedicated laundry room add comfort and convenience. The primary suite includes an en-suite bath for added privacy with separate dual vanities. The backyard is designed for entertaining with new sod, a custom-built BBQ with brick accents and cement prep countertops, outdoor ligh

Key facts

• Updated home
• Center island
• Built-in microwave

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE
• FRESH WHITE CABINETRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mountainous community setting
• Financial info: Land lease amount: monthly
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with direct garage access; 2 garage spaces; Driveway parking (2 total parking spaces)
• Security: Gated community with guard
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: House; One story; Entry at main level; No ADU; Canyon View Estates subdivision; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Composition roof; Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: Covered concrete patio; Community pool; Front yard; Back yard; Block wall and wrought iron fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Formica counters; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $319k).
• Recommended offer: $309k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,672/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 784% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.06%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,824
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20126 Northcliff	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,752 (0%)	2mo	$280,000	$160	97
19983 Crestview Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,752 (0%)	7mo	$360,000	$205	86
27829 Sunrise Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,752 (0%)	3mo	$283,000	$162	84
20039 Emerald Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+5%)	16mo	$300,000	$163	67
19954 Emerald Crk	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+5%)	19mo	$335,000	$182	62
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #231	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-10%)	3mo	$240,000	$153	53
20401 Soledad Cyn #613	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+4%)	24mo	$254,500	$140	46
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #821	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-14%)	23mo	$235,800	$156	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $51,529
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $161,240
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,672 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,020/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$981
• Net cashflow: $1,717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,499

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,897	-5% $1,807	+0% $1,717	+5% $1,626	+10% $1,536
Rent	-10% $1,347	-5% $1,532	+0% $1,717	+5% $1,901	+10% $2,086
Rate	-1.0pp $1,877	-0.5pp $1,798	base $1,717	+0.5pp $1,634	+1.0pp $1,550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27932 Calypso Ln Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1789	$7,495	$4.19	0d	1	0.50mi
27932 Calypso Ln Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1783	$7,495	$4.20	20d	1	0.50mi
28040 Ermine Pl Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1467	$4,250	$2.90	0d	1	0.59mi
28131 Florence Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$4,300	$2.84	0d	1	0.70mi
28128 Wildwind Rd Canyon Country, CA	3.0	3.0	1900	$3,875	$2.04	0d	1	0.87mi
26844 Albion Way Unit 1 Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1817	$3,995	$2.20	13d	1	1.03mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$3,700	$3.52	25d	2	1.09mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	0d	1	1.09mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	8d	1	1.15mi
28371 Mirabelle Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,400	$1.99	7d	1	1.15mi
28366 Casselman Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,650	$2.13	0d	1	1.19mi
28519 Moyer Ln Santa Clarita, CA	4.0	3.0	2360	$4,950	$2.10	0d	1	1.23mi
19341 Opal Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1850	$3,850	$2.08	19d	1	1.24mi
28136 Bakerton Ave Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	8d	1	1.28mi
22056 Windham Way Santa Clarita, CA	4.0	3.0	2132	$4,350	$2.04	0d	1	1.28mi
18735 Bookham Dr Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1628	$4,900	$3.01	18d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $319,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,424 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$405/yr (+$34/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$2,020
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,485
• − Management: −$4,485
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable income: $16,327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,918
• After-tax cash flow: $16,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated manufactured home is move-in ready with fresh paint, new flooring, and a modern kitchen. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers
• Both Installing new flooring in the bathrooms — Improves the overall look and feel of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in the bathrooms — Improves the overall look and feel of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $319,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,020 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.