4339 Brookdale Rd · Cherry Valley, IL 61109

$159,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1970 0.62 ac lot Est $256k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country Ranch On 0.62 Acres That Backs To Woods. 2.5 Car - Garage Detached & 2024 Remodeled Kitchen & Baths. 2026 Two New Sump Pumps. 2022 New Driveway. Near Cherry Valley Mall & I-90 Access. Schools Cherry Valley - Elementary, Flynn Middle School, Jefferson High School. Total Living Space 1308 SF. Must Close On Or Before June 30th

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• New driveway
• Flynn middle school

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHS
• NEW DRIVEWAY
• I-90 ACCESS
• CHERRY VALLEY ELEMENTARY
• FLYNN MIDDLE SCHOOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Below-grade finished area; Finished lower level (below grade)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Gas water heater; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($544/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.7% in Cherry Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#273 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cherry Valley Elementary School (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,224 of 2,056 statewide, top 60%, 639 students, 0% FRL); Bernard W Flinn Middle School (math 5% / reading 9%, grade F, #627 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 830 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson High School (math 3% / reading 9%, grade F, #608 of 693 statewide, top 88%, 2,114 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $160k implies a 515% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $148,571 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,368
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7108 Wheatland Ter	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,196 (-9%)	1mo	$235,000	$196	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-22,988
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,151
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61109

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,679/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $159,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   remarks 341-char remark
6. 2026-06-10
   listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,679 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,154 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,679
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$507
• After-tax cash flow: $1,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Cherry Valley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #5199

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 26,768
• Household income: $62,973
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 941.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.42%
• Current HPI: 296.0019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+515.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $159,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-08 Listed $159,900 NWIAR
• 1994-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,679 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.