3251 E Rd #33 · Clifton, CO 81520

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $62k · 21% under $750/mo HOA · 58% of rent ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on market at no fault of property. Affordable home available in the Picture Ranch Park! You’ll love this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with vaulted ceilings tucked away in a quiet corner of the park. Neighbors only on one side! Behind the home you’ll find the beautiful 7.5 acre Rocky Mountain Elementary Park & walking loop. The beautiful yard offers peace and tranquility on those summer evenings. Home is wheelchair accessible. Newer swamp cooler and newer water heater. Schedule your showing today! Financing available through Minde Harper at Guild Mortgage, (970-270-1410).

Key facts

• Walking loop
• Vaulted ceilings
• Beautiful yard

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBLE
• ROCKY MOUNTAIN ELEMENTARY PARK
• WALKING LOOP
• BEAUTIFUL YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $750 monthly fee; HOA fee includes cable TV, insurance, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); Faces north
• Construction: Masonite siding; Asphalt composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/deck; Deck; Chain link and partial fencing; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Accessible entrance, ramp, doors, hallway(s), and accessible full bath

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-344/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $44k (10.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Clifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#140 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, commute A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Mountain Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #793 of 966 statewide, top 84%, 469 students, 75% FRL); Mount Garfield Middle School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #164 of 270 statewide, top 61%, 581 students, 64% FRL); Palisade High School (math 35% / reading 57%, grade D-, #138 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,125 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 58% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,938 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,908
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3268 E Rd #1	0.27mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	2mo	$20,000	$22	86
3251 E Rd #96	0.08mi	2/1.0	980 (+6%)	11mo	$35,000	$36	77
3265 Friendship Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	992 (+7%)	7mo	$182,000	$183	62
512 Friendship Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	8mo	$180,000	$188	60
3251 E Rd #8	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,022 (+11%)	13mo	$68,000	$67	59
3251 E Rd #3	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	952 (+3%)	22mo	$65,000	$68	57
3268 E Rd #34	0.36mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	22mo	$38,000	$45	50
3268 E Rd #35	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	15mo	$68,000	$64	38
3268 E Rd #18	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	18mo	$79,300	$75	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-10,147
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-12,728
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81520

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $179/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$750
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $43,938

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-15	+0% $-29	+5% $-43	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-79	+0% $-29	+5% $22	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-16	base $-29	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3221 Chipeta Ct Apt 3 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,000	$1.02	23d	1	0.42mi
3216 Chipeta Ct Unit 4 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,250	$1.22	23d	1	0.45mi
491 32 1/8 Rd Unit 2 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	890	$1,200	$1.35	23d	1	0.50mi
492 Coronado Ct Unit A Clifton, CO	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	0.53mi
3210 Diamond Ct Unit B Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	23d	1	0.54mi
497 Coronado Ct Unit B Clifton, CO	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,395	$1.28	23d	1	0.56mi
3238 D 1/4 Rd Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	952	$2,000	$2.10	15d	1	0.56mi
463 Topaz Dr Unit D Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	23d	1	0.59mi
461 Topaz Dr Unit C Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	23d	1	0.59mi
3197 Hill Ave Unit 3 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1022	$1,095	$1.07	23d	1	0.66mi
3252 Villasur Dr Apt B Clifton, CO	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,500	$1.37	23d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $750 · $9,000/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-05-09
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-27
    listed $49,000 Active
20. 2025-10-06
    price $59,900
21. 2025-09-08
    status Active
22. 2025-09-03
    status Pending
23. 2025-07-21
    price $69,900
24. 2025-07-09
    price $79,900
25. 2025-03-25
    listed $84,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $179 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $270 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 50.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$179
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − HOA: −$9,000
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable loss: −$661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$159
• After-tax cash flow: $-185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Clifton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clifton, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 12,892
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 12,892
• Household income: $50,283
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 362.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.00%
• Current HPI: 342.4448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-41.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — GJARA
• 2026-04-27 Listed $49,000 GJARA
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $59,900 GJARA
• 2025-09-08 Relisted — GJARA
• 2025-09-03 Pending — GJARA
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $69,900 GJARA
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $79,900 GJARA
• 2025-03-25 Listed $84,000 GJARA

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $179 · +139.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.