16-393 Old Volcano Rd · Keaau, HI 96749

$179,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,363 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1957 0.45 ac lot $132/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nearly half an acre, prime location right in Keaau town. Priced as land value, home is in bad shape, likely a teardown

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 154 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $895 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#24 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $180k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.33%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,448
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -55.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16-740 Milo St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (-4%)	4mo	$450,000	$344	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $59,838
• Equity at exit: $60,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $158,757
• Equity at exit: $80,281

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96749

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $895

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,020	-5% $958	+0% $895	+5% $833	+10% $771
Rent	-10% $682	-5% $788	+0% $895	+5% $1,002	+10% $1,109
Rate	-1.0pp $986	-0.5pp $941	base $895	+0.5pp $849	+1.0pp $801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $179,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    price $195,000 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Nearly half an acre, prime location right in Keaau town. Priced as land value, home is in bad shape, likely a teardown

17. 2026-01-15
    price $225,000 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Nearly half an acre, prime location right in Keaau town. Priced as land value, home is in bad shape, likely a teardown

18. 2026-01-15
    listed $210,000 Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Nearly half an acre, prime location right in Keaau town. Priced as land value, home is in bad shape, likely a teardown

19. 1987-10-21
    soldstatus $73,000
20. 1982-05-01
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $8,380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,011
• After-tax cash flow: $8,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Keaau

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #7285

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keaau, HI
• County: Hawaii County · 119,311 people
• City population: 19,132
• Metro: Hilo, HI
• Population (ZIP): 19,132
• Household income: $85,399
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.87)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 33% White 24% Asian 22% Pacific Islander 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 9% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Vietnamese 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Current HPI: 183.9836
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hilo, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+143.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $195,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $225,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-01-15 Listed $210,000 HI Information Service
• 1987-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1982-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $200 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.