2602 W 21st St · Panama City, FL 32405

$118,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1959 0.26 ac lot $137/sqft · 39% below area Est $193k · 39% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ATTENTION INVESTORS!! Conveniently located minutes from the vibrant St. Andrews area and 15 min from the beach, this home is in need of repairs and updates, but it has solid bones. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, large eat in kitchen and nice size family room, this space is a blank canvas. The roof was replaced after Hurricane Michael. The yard is fenced in. Outside storage/laundry room with nice carport area. This would be the perfect rental investment or resale project. The area is great, close to everything and many houses on the street are also updating. Come take a look and think of the possibilities! Call me today!

Key facts

• 15 min from beach
• Fenced in yard
• Carport area

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• OUTSIDE STORAGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• CARPORT AREA
• 15 MIN FROM BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Lot approximately 80 x 140 (0.26 acre); Zoned for single-family residential

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor (two ~10 x 10, one ~10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.37%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,442
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: -39.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2018 Clay Ave Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	840 (-3%)	12mo	$59,000	$70	70
1813 Hickory Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0	894 (+4%)	12mo	$170,000	$190	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,444
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $25,015
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,689/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,024

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	21d	1	0.37mi
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	21d	1	0.71mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	21d	1	0.93mi
1301 Frankford Ave Apt B104 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	13d	1	1.01mi
4324 W 20th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$1,382	$1.38	13d	12	1.23mi
4455 W 19th St #17 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,400	$1.27	21d	1	1.24mi
2100 W Beach Dr Unit F102 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-17
   price $118,000 626-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $119,000 Active 626-char remark
3. 2021-12-14
   historical
4. 2007-04-04
   listed $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,689
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $3,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$731
• After-tax cash flow: $4,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $118,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $119,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2007-04-04 Listed $124,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,689 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.