42 Bogardus St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$50,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 991 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1900 3,920 sqft lot $50/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

VIP pricing. Sellers will consider offers starting at $50,000. Attention investors & owner occupants! Come check out this 4 bedroom 2 story home ready for new owners to give it new life! Located in Buffalo's Lovejoy neighbor Property features living room, dining room, kitchen, 4 bdrms, and full bath. Updates include new vinyl siding and roof. At acceptable price and terms, the adjacent vacant lot at 46 Bogardus St(140200-112-490-0001-050-000) may be included, making the total lot size . 18 acres. * Property is in need of rehab and is not habitable in its current condition. *

Key facts

• New vinyl siding
• New roof
• Total lot size

Tags

• NEW VINYL SIDING
• NEW ROOF
• TOTAL LOT SIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $50k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.25%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,227
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -67.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 Moreland St	0.15mi	4/1.0	1,069 (+8%)	12mo	$82,000	$77	70
29 Bogardus St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+10%)	10mo	$150,000	$137	68
123 Longnecker St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,012 (+2%)	20mo	$130,000	$128	64
31 Central Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	879 (-11%)	1mo	$35,000	$40	63
324 Ideal St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,092 (+10%)	6mo	$195,000	$179	55
105 Regent St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,138 (+15%)	6mo	$110,000	$97	52
71 Grimes St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,001 (+1%)	12mo	$38,000	$38	51
69 Greene St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (+11%)	20mo	$105,000	$96	51
74 Vanderbilt St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,136 (+15%)	3mo	$105,000	$92	50
31 Schiller St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,037 (+5%)	13mo	$90,000	$87	47
379 N Ogden St Unit E	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,083 (+9%)	3mo	$160,000	$148	44
150 N Ogden St Unit W	0.50mi	4/1.5	1,122 (+13%)	19mo	$185,000	$165	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $67,046
• Equity at exit: $38,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.44×
• Total profit: $160,177
• Equity at exit: $75,987

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $460/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $407

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $755	-5% $740	+0% $726	+5% $712	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $622	-5% $674	+0% $726	+5% $779	+10% $831
Rate	-1.0pp $751	-0.5pp $739	base $726	+0.5pp $713	+1.0pp $700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	24d	1	0.25mi
67 Moeller St Unit LOWER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	24d	1	1.48mi
67 Moeller St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-01-19
    listed $50,000 Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    VIP pricing. Sellers will consider offers starting at $50,000. Attention investors & owner occupants! Come check out this 4 bedroom 2 story home ready for new owners to give it new life! Located in Buffalo's Lovejoy neighbor Property features living room, dining room, kitchen, 4 bdrms, and full bath. Updates include new vinyl siding and roof. At acceptable price and terms, the adjacent vacant lot at 46 Bogardus St(140200-112-490-0001-050-000) may be included, making the total lot size . 18 acres. * Property is in need of rehab and is not habitable in its current condition. *

16. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus $32,500 Closed Sale or Rented 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    Handy man special. Workplan already filed with city.

17. 2022-10-21
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    Handy man special. Workplan already filed with city.

18. 2022-10-12
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    Handy man special. Workplan already filed with city.

19. 2022-08-23
    price $29,900 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    Handy man special. Workplan already filed with city.

20. 2022-08-22
    listed $39,900 Active 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    Handy man special. Workplan already filed with city.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 41.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$460
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,273
• − Management: −$1,273
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,017
• After-tax cash flow: $6,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+25.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-05 Sold (MLS) $32,500 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-10-12 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2022-08-23 Price Changed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-22 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $460 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.