10434 Villa View Cir · Tampa, FL 33647

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · Condo public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2001 $144/sqft · 25% below area Est $224k · 25% under $637/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo combines comfort and style in a thoughtfully designed townhome-style layout with no one living above or below, providing excellent privacy. The 1,175 sq. ft. corner residence is bathed in natural light and showcases a spacious great room concept that links the kitchen, dining area, and living room into one cohesive space. High ceilings in the living room and luxury vinyl tile flooring in the main areas contribute to an open, sophisticated feel. The well-appointed kitchen features wood cabinetry, a closet pantry, and a breakfast bar that overlooks the living area, creating a natural hub for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat with a generous walk-in closet and an en-suite bath offering an updated vanity and soothing garden tub. The secondary bedroom also includes a large walk-in closet and enjoys direct access to the guest bath, making it ideal for visitors or roommates. Numerous upgrades enhance both function and efficiency, including a new HVAC system in 2022. The oversized one-car garage provides an insulated door, extra storage, and an additional dedicated parking space directly in front. A convenient laundry room just off the kitchen doubles as extra pantry and storage space, ensuring plenty of room for essentials. Set within a gated community, residents have access to resort-style amenities such as a sparkling pool, fitness center, playground, and clubhouse. The HOA fee also covers a premium cable and high-speed internet package with extensive channels, adding excellent value. With close proximity to shopping, dining, major highways, and USF, this condo delivers a desirable blend of convenience, amenities, and modern living in a prime location.

Key facts

• Great room concept
• Natural light
• Corner residence

Tags

• TOWNHOME STYLE LAYOUT
• NO ONE LIVING ABOVE OR BELOW
• CORNER RESIDENCE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GREAT ROOM CONCEPT
• HIGH CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (35.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 480 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,550 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.68%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,897
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -24.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-54,072
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -94.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.99×
• Total profit: $-93,976
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33647

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 480
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,087/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$637
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,237

Max offer price $108,550

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10538 Villa View Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.04mi
17942 Villa Creek Dr #17942 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,590	$1.43	24d	1	0.04mi
17954 Villa Creek Dr Unit 17954 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,700	$1.53	4d	1	0.04mi
17975 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1082	$1,450	$1.34	24d	1	0.04mi
17977 Villa Creek Dr #17977 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	830	$1,350	$1.63	14d	1	0.04mi
18058 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.05mi
18105 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,950	$1.66	24d	1	0.05mi
18124 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	1d	1	0.05mi
18006 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,875	$1.60	4d	1	0.09mi
10526 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,695	$1.44	2d	1	0.20mi
10328 Venitia Real Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1111	$1,533	$1.38	1d	37	0.45mi
10327 Goldenbrook Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,575	$1.97	17d	1	0.65mi
10821 Cross Creek Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1160	$2,018	$1.74	1d	22	0.98mi
18157 Paradise Point Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,295	$1.68	4d	1	1.42mi
18181 Paradise Point Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,200	$1.61	17d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $637 · $7,644/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    price $169,000 1760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1760 chars)

    This inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo combines comfort and style in a thoughtfully designed townhome-style layout with no one living above or below, providing excellent privacy. The 1,175 sq. ft. corner residence is bathed in natural light and showcases a spacious great room concept that links the kitchen, dining area, and living room into one cohesive space. High ceilings in the living room and luxury vinyl tile flooring in the main areas contribute to an open, sophisticated feel. The well-appointed kitchen features wood cabinetry, a closet pantry, and a breakfast bar that overlooks the living area, creating a natural hub for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat with a generous walk-in closet and an en-suite bath offering an updated vanity and soothing garden tub. The secondary bedroom also includes a large walk-in closet and enjoys direct access to the guest bath, making it ideal for visitors or roommates. Numerous upgrades enhance both function and efficiency, including a new HVAC system in 2022. The oversized one-car garage provides an insulated door, extra storage, and an additional dedicated parking space directly in front. A convenient laundry room just off the kitchen doubles as extra pantry and storage space, ensuring plenty of room for essentials. Set within a gated community, residents have access to resort-style amenities such as a sparkling pool, fitness center, playground, and clubhouse. The HOA fee also covers a premium cable and high-speed internet package with extensive channels, adding excellent value. With close proximity to shopping, dining, major highways, and USF, this condo delivers a desirable blend of convenience, amenities, and modern living in a prime location.

16. 2026-01-21
    listed $175,000 Active 1760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1760 chars)

    This inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo combines comfort and style in a thoughtfully designed townhome-style layout with no one living above or below, providing excellent privacy. The 1,175 sq. ft. corner residence is bathed in natural light and showcases a spacious great room concept that links the kitchen, dining area, and living room into one cohesive space. High ceilings in the living room and luxury vinyl tile flooring in the main areas contribute to an open, sophisticated feel. The well-appointed kitchen features wood cabinetry, a closet pantry, and a breakfast bar that overlooks the living area, creating a natural hub for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat with a generous walk-in closet and an en-suite bath offering an updated vanity and soothing garden tub. The secondary bedroom also includes a large walk-in closet and enjoys direct access to the guest bath, making it ideal for visitors or roommates. Numerous upgrades enhance both function and efficiency, including a new HVAC system in 2022. The oversized one-car garage provides an insulated door, extra storage, and an additional dedicated parking space directly in front. A convenient laundry room just off the kitchen doubles as extra pantry and storage space, ensuring plenty of room for essentials. Set within a gated community, residents have access to resort-style amenities such as a sparkling pool, fitness center, playground, and clubhouse. The HOA fee also covers a premium cable and high-speed internet package with extensive channels, adding excellent value. With close proximity to shopping, dining, major highways, and USF, this condo delivers a desirable blend of convenience, amenities, and modern living in a prime location.

17. 2025-10-27
    historical
18. 2025-04-23
    listed $198,500 Active
19. 2007-08-21
    historical
20. 2007-08-01
    listed $181,700
21. 2005-02-08
    soldstatus $26,433,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,087 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,087 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,087
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − HOA: −$7,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$6,772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 74,844
• Household income: $109,285
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2578.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Black 16% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.77%
• Current HPI: 225.0483
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Listed $198,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-01 Listed $181,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $26,433,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,087 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.