2111 Vallecito Ct · Shasta Lake, CA 96019

$152,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1971 0.31 ac lot $113/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

Key facts

• Detached bonus room
• Secluded yard
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED BONUS ROOM
• LARGE SEMI-PRIVATE LOT
• AMPLE SPACE FOR RV PARKING
• AMPLE SPACE FOR BOAT PARKING
• SECLUDED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.8% in Shasta Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#399 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $152k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.45%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,545
• List price: $152,000
• Delta: -52.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,087
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $29,215
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96019

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $152,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1840 Grand Coulee Blvd Shasta Lake, CA	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	43d	1	0.48mi
1833 Oregon St Shasta Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,850	$1.43	13d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $152,000 Pending 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $152,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $152,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $152,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $152,000 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    status Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

18. 2026-03-28
    historical Active Under Contract 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

19. 2026-03-22
    status Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

20. 2026-02-01
    status Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

21. 2026-01-26
    status Pending 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

22. 2025-12-05
    status Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

23. 2025-11-30
    status Pending 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

24. 2025-11-24
    status Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

25. 2025-11-21
    status Pending 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

26. 2025-11-10
    listed $152,000 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to your sanctuary. This quality move-in ready 2-bed 2-bath 1971 MFD home sits on large semi-private lot. The spacious yard offers boundless potential for gardening and features grape vines, plum, fig trees and much more. Home is close to schools, shopping and the I-5 freeway. It also includes a detached bonus room (for yoga, art, music. .. or anything your imagination can fathom). The lot also provides ample space for RV and boat parking. Its secluded yard affords limitless opportunity for relaxation and tranquility. SELLER WILL PROVIDE CREDIT FOR COMPLETION OF PEST WORK WITH ACCEPTED OFFER.

27. 2017-08-22
    soldstatus $76,000 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Clean, older mobile on large lot, backs to Shasta Lake School. Circle driveway, lots of parking and several sheds for storage. Mature landscaping offers some privacy from the neighbors. Mobile is 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with a large living room. Good starter home or rental. Conveniently located! CB203

28. 2017-08-22
    soldstatus $60,000

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Clean, older mobile on large lot, backs to Shasta Lake School. Circle driveway, lots of parking and several sheds for storage. Mature landscaping offers some privacy from the neighbors. Mobile is 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with a large living room. Good starter home or rental. Conveniently located! CB203

29. 2017-07-21
    listed $79,000 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Clean, older mobile on large lot, backs to Shasta Lake School. Circle driveway, lots of parking and several sheds for storage. Mature landscaping offers some privacy from the neighbors. Mobile is 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with a large living room. Good starter home or rental. Conveniently located! CB203

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$442/yr (+$37/mo · 62.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 44 unhealthy d/yr today · 46 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $2,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$493
• After-tax cash flow: $3,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shasta Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #399
• US rank: #13546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shasta Lake, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 10,350
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 10,350
• Household income: $67,446
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 260.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.66%
• Current HPI: 170.6085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+92.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-03-28 Contingent — SAOR
• 2026-03-22 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-01-26 Pending — SAOR
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — SAOR
• 2025-11-30 Pending — SAOR
• 2025-11-24 Relisted — SAOR
• 2025-11-21 Pending — SAOR
• 2025-11-10 Listed $152,000 SAOR
• 2017-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-22 Sold (MLS) $76,000 SAOR
• 2017-07-21 Listed $79,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.