7110 Thomas James Ct · Cove, TX 77523

$280,020

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,500 sqft lot $185/sqft · at area comps Est $295k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home offers a well-designed layout that blends comfort and functionality. A welcoming foyer leads to a private study, while the open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, featuring a large island and ample counter space. The owner’s suite is tucked at the rear for privacy, complete with a dual-sink bath and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are positioned on the opposite side, along with a full bath and nearby laundry room. A covered patio option extends outdoor living, and a 2-car garage adds everyday convenience, all in a thoughtfully designed single-level home.

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($364/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,294 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,542
• List price: $280,020
• Delta: -4.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
635 Hidden Brook Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+0%)	1mo	$282,000	$186	90
6830 Bens Lndg	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	86
6810 Bens Lndg	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	3mo	$259,140	$171	83
6922 Bens Lndg	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+9%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	76
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+5%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	76
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-7%)	1mo	$254,970	$181	72
6818 Bens Lndg	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+9%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	71
14906 Rain Tree Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+8%)	4mo	$299,000	$183	68
14915 Spring Forest Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+10%)	3mo	$307,000	$185	64
14503 Sweet Water Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+0%)	3mo	$280,000	$185	63
6743 Camila St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+11%)	2mo	$284,000	$169	57
14926 Diamond Way	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+10%)	3mo	$237,000	$143	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-42,260
• Equity at exit: $41,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-29,427
• Equity at exit: $24,211

Cash invested: $78,406 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,545

Max offer price $280,020

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $224	-5% $127	+0% $30	+5% $-66	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-72	+0% $30	+5% $132	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $102	base $30	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,005
• Closing costs: $8,401
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	45d	1	0.30mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	3d	1	0.52mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	1.24mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	26d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $280,020 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $280,020 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $280,020 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-04-10
   listed $280,020 Active 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   This single-story home offers a well-designed layout that blends comfort and functionality. A welcoming foyer leads to a private study, while the open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, featuring a large island and ample counter space. The owner’s suite is tucked at the rear for privacy, complete with a dual-sink bath and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are positioned on the opposite side, along with a full bath and nearby laundry room. A covered patio option extends outdoor living, and a 2-car garage adds everyday convenience, all in a thoughtfully designed single-level home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,685
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,146
• Taxable loss: −$4,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $1,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home offers a well-designed layout with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value enhancement through painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $280,020 HARMLS