The Emory Plan · San Antonio, TX 78073

$277,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,971 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Emory plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1971 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Emory to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept kitchen, dining area, and family room. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the back of the home on the first floor and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom with double-vanity sinks, and game room. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Preserve at Medina by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Attached bathroom
• Grand walk in closet

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK IN SHOWER
• GRAND WALK IN CLOSET
• GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $277,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,751.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,358 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.74%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,751
• List price: $277,000
• Delta: -1.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15423 Mint Patch Mdw	0.02mi	5/2.5	1,971 (0%)	2mo	$256,765	$130	97
4235 Paprika Grv	0.10mi	5/2.5	1,971 (0%)	1mo	$262,265	$133	94
4235 Marjoram Lndg	0.13mi	5/2.5	1,971 (0%)	1mo	$262,265	$133	93
15431 Mint Patch Mdw	0.01mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	2mo	$254,795	$135	91
4267 Marjoram Lndg	0.09mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	2mo	$255,295	$135	88
15527 Mint Patch Mdw	0.04mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	7mo	$268,499	$142	86
4239 Marjoram Lndg	0.13mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	2mo	$255,295	$135	86
4223 Marjoram Lndg	0.15mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	1mo	$254,795	$135	86
4230 Paprika Grv	0.12mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-4%)	6mo	$268,499	$142	83
15703 Cardamom	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,186 (+11%)	4mo	$231,000	$106	60
15326 Waterow Vw	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (-9%)	1mo	$279,900	$156	56
4115 Hidden Holw	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,793 (-9%)	3mo	$199,900	$111	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $12,415
• Equity at exit: $120,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $73,685
• Equity at exit: $180,818

Cash invested: $78,890 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,478
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,226/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,465

Max offer price $246,185

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,438
• Closing costs: $8,453
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15559 Mint Patch Mdw Unit 1 Von Ormy, TX	5.0	3.0	2498	$600	$0.24	44d	1	0.11mi
4323 Caraway Bay Von Ormy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1572	$2,305	$1.47	2d	6	0.13mi
15115 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,795	$1.00	15d	1	0.34mi
15114 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	3.5	2198	$2,000	$0.91	22d	1	0.36mi
15315 Waterow Vw Von Ormy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1781	$2,400	$1.35	2d	1	0.47mi
15237 Snug Harbor Way Von Ormy, TX	5.0	3.0	2542	$2,100	$0.83	44d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $277,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-01-21
    listed $277,000 Active 1381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1381 chars)

    The Emory plan is one of our two-story homes featured in Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This new home layout offers 2 classic front exteriors, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2 car-garage and 1971 square feet of comfortable living. Step inside The Emory to find an elongated foyer opening to an open concept kitchen, dining area, and family room. The gourmet kitchen faces the living area so you don't miss a thing while cooking and includes quartz counter tops, stainless steel appliances and shaker style cabinetry. The main bedroom is located toward the back of the home on the first floor and features an attractive attached bathroom with a walk-in shower, quartz countertops, a grand walk-in closet and plenty of storage space. The second story includes all secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom with double-vanity sinks, and game room. You'll have carpeted floors in every bedroom and sheet vinyl flooring in your bathrooms and utility room. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Preserve at Medina by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,782
• − Property taxes: −$4,226
• − Insurance: −$1,409
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$8,196
• Taxable loss: −$7,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,897
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $277,000 Zillow