88 Cold Spring Rd · Liberty, NY 12754

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1940 0.27 ac lot Est $333k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 88 Cold Spring Rd, offering a fully renovated, move-in-ready Cape-style home with low property taxes! This property is loaded with quality details, such as recessed lighting with an optional amber halo effect to create a relaxing atmosphere, quartz countertops, matching stainless steel appliances, and soft-close cabinets. It also features a large kitchen island that flows into a formal dining area and living space, complete with a fireplace. Other great perks include the bedroom and full bath on the main level, as well as a fully converted garage space with exposed beams, vaulted ceilings, and sliding doors that step onto a deck (soon to be stained) overlooking the back yard. Mov

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Fully renovated
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (off-street parking); No carport
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Septic tank; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Quartz or quartzite counters; Open, galley-style layout; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Galley-style kitchen; High ceilings; His and hers closets; Kitchen island; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Quartz or quartzite counters; Recessed lighting; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup; First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in basement; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#890 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $200k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $235,000 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,748
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 California	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-10%)	5mo	$300,000	$158	76
21 Woodland Ave	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,975 (-6%)	5mo	$318,000	$161	70
26 Delaware Ave	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,224 (+6%)	14mo	$251,000	$113	59
39 Winslow Pl	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,960 (-7%)	5mo	$220,000	$112	59
9 Delaware Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,970 (-6%)	17mo	$312,000	$158	50
182 Cold Spring Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,280 (+8%)	18mo	$366,000	$161	48
22 Marion Ave	0.65mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,228 (+6%)	6mo	$369,000	$166	48
55 Delaware Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,363 (+12%)	19mo	$340,000	$144	46
72 Lincoln Pl	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (-12%)	0mo	$269,000	$146	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $144,610
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $440,811
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12754

• Home prices YoY: 28.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,450/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,724

Max offer price $247,735

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Liberty St Liberty, NY	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	23d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $299,900
17. 2026-04-15
    price $325,000
18. 2026-04-06
    price $350,000
19. 2026-03-02
    price $399,900
20. 2025-12-18
    price $415,000
21. 2025-12-03
    price $449,900
22. 2025-10-29
    price $469,900
23. 2025-10-15
    listed $499,900 Active
24. 2025-02-25
    soldstatus $200,000
25. 1995-08-31
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,450 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,450 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,450
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$8,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #890
• US rank: #17254

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,525
• Population (ZIP): 8,525

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.10%
• Current HPI: 457.3342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+649.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $415,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $449,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $469,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $499,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,450 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.