Aspen Plan · Montgomery, AL 36116

$266,300

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Good condition $27/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aspen is the embodiment of the modern open floor plan. Everything you could want, or need is beautifully laid before you in the open space where the living room - with its woodburning fireplace that is the focal point and the eat in kitchen - with energy efficient appliances are. The main space is filled with sunlight that comes streaming in through all the windows. Each of the four good sized bedrooms, two bathrooms, and main space will be kept to just the right temperature with the Spray Foam insulation and double pane Low- E vinyl windows keeping the outside weather from entering the house.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 193 days

🏗️ New construction. The $266,300 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $269,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $266k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 6.2% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Brewbaker Primary School (799 students, 78% FRL); Brewbaker Middle School (math 0% / reading 19%, grade F, #227 of 257 statewide, top 90%, 838 students, 91% FRL); Jefferson Davis High School (math 3% / reading 16%, grade F, #258 of 305 statewide, top 85%, 1,522 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,444 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.10%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,000
• List price: $266,300
• Delta: -1.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3900 Albion Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,665 (+1%)	2mo	$271,500	$163	92
3917 Albion Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,665 (+1%)	2mo	$268,500	$161	91
3912 Albion Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,725 (+4%)	1mo	$269,500	$156	89
3916 Albion Ct	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+8%)	1mo	$275,500	$154	83
3901 Albion Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+8%)	2mo	$278,000	$155	81
3984 Albion Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,857 (+12%)	0mo	$286,500	$154	78
3908 Albion Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,857 (+12%)	1mo	$279,200	$150	75
3909 Albion Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,857 (+12%)	2mo	$279,200	$150	75
2220 E Aberdeen Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (+1%)	2mo	$217,000	$130	67
6720 Capouano Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,777 (+7%)	0mo	$210,000	$118	67
6724 Pamela Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,623 (-2%)	0mo	$175,000	$108	64
6817 Wampold Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,736 (+5%)	0mo	$157,000	$90	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-75,366
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-92,556
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $256,800 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 61% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36116

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 499
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,387

Max offer price $186,362

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-385	-5% $-478	+0% $-571	+5% $-664	+10% $-757
Rent	-10% $-703	-5% $-637	+0% $-571	+5% $-505	+10% $-440
Rate	-1.0pp $-436	-0.5pp $-503	base $-571	+0.5pp $-641	+1.0pp $-712

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2400 W Aberdeen Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	2232	$1,831	$0.82	28d	1	0.26mi
2420 Haddington Rd Unit 1519890P Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.0	1679	$4,483	$2.67	154d	1	0.38mi
2224 W Aberdeen Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1994	$1,600	$0.80	162d	1	0.47mi
5540 Ash Grove Cir Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	162d	1	0.50mi
2224 Edinburgh Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	7d	1	0.51mi
6605 Denham Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,650	$1.08	51d	1	0.52mi
6605 Denham Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,650	$1.08	44d	1	0.52mi
2108 E Aberdeen Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,295	$0.71	10d	1	0.82mi
5322 Rexford Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1640	$1,250	$0.76	21d	1	0.89mi
3606 Farmfield Ln Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1936	$1,895	$0.98	26d	1	0.92mi
3606 Farmfield Ln Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1936	$1,895	$0.98	41d	1	0.92mi
2044 Edinburgh Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1722	$1,500	$0.87	10d	1	0.94mi
2136 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1632	$1,100	$0.67	10d	1	0.95mi
4008 Oak Shadow Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1741	$1,395	$0.80	162d	1	1.03mi
2100 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,025	$0.65	43d	1	1.04mi
2066 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1632	$1,250	$0.77	162d	1	1.10mi
2060 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1566	$925	$0.59	162d	1	1.11mi
6437 Chaprice Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,450	$0.92	10d	1	1.13mi
3201 Watchman Dr Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,375	$1.31	0d	13	1.14mi
3638 Castle Ridge Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$800	$0.73	154d	1	1.15mi
2014 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,150	$0.72	184d	1	1.21mi
3364 Fountain Ln Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1221	$1,199	$0.98	10d	1	1.23mi
7104 Fair Oaks Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,881	$1.14	184d	1	1.27mi
5635 Red Barn Rd Unit 1043848P Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,018	$2.02	1d	1	1.30mi
4590 Troy Hwy Montgomery, AL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1414	$1,399	$0.99	2d	1	1.35mi
3712 Claiborne Cir Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1924	$2,100	$1.09	184d	1	1.37mi
3500 Claiborne Cir Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	2140	$2,200	$1.03	10d	1	1.39mi
3500 Claiborne Cir Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	2140	$2,200	$1.03	16d	1	1.39mi
5931 Singleton St Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1302	$695	$0.53	184d	1	1.41mi
7406 Mill Ridge Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1785	$2,250	$1.26	185d	1	1.45mi
5917 Cherry Hill Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1161	$1,450	$1.25	154d	1	1.45mi
3912 Claiborne Cir Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	2068	$1,900	$0.92	26d	1	1.46mi
5953 Oakleigh Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1215	$850	$0.70	10d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $263,300Active listing (last modified May 21, 2026)
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $27.50

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: Plan named AspenNew construction plan inventory
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 1,655 square feet of living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $266,300 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $266,300 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $266,300 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $266,300 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $266,300 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $266,300 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $266,300 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $266,300 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $266,300 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $266,300 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $266,300 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $266,300 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $266,300 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $266,300 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $266,300 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $266,300 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $266,300 Active 177 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $266,300 Active 176 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $266,300 Active 175 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $266,300 Active 174 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $266,300 Active 173 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $266,300 Active 172 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $266,300 Active 171 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $266,300 Active 170 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $266,300 Active 169 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $266,300 Active 168 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $266,300 Active 167 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $266,300 Active 166 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $266,300 Active 165 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $266,300 Active 164 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $266,300 Active 163 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $266,300 Active 162 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $266,300 Active 161 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $266,300 Active 160 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $266,300 Active 159 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $266,300 Active 158 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $266,300 Active 157 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    price $266,300 Active 156 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $263,300 Active 156 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $263,300 Active 155 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $263,300 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $263,300 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $263,300 Active 152 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $263,300 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $263,300 Active 150 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $263,300 Active 149 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $263,300 Active 148 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $263,300 Active 147 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $263,300 Active 146 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $263,300 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$11,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,837
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Aspen Plan is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required. Fresh paint and landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint freshening — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping enhancement — Improved landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Window treatments — New window treatments can improve energy efficiency and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Flooring maintenance — Regular cleaning and maintenance of hardwood floors can preserve their value. ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances maintenance — Regular maintenance of appliances ensures they remain in good working condition and attractive to potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Brewbaker Primary School Middle Brewbaker Middle School F AL #227/257 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Jefferson Davis High School F AL #258/305 Nat'l #16,586/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 224,008 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 45,250
• Household income: $55,160
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 12% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.31%
• Current HPI: 151.8598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $263,300Active listing (last modified May 21, 2026)
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $27.50

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: Plan named AspenNew construction plan inventory
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 1,655 square feet of living area