1617 Belle St · St. Joseph, MO 64503

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1917 5,000 sqft lot $77/sqft · 11% above area Est $81k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors! This two bedroom, one bathroom home features updated luxury vinyl plank, hardwood floors, and carpet. Laundry hook-ups are available in the mudroom. The home is currently occupied by long-term tenants. This turn-key property will make a great addition to any portfolio!

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 136 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.52%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,278
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: 10.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2819 S 22nd St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,241 (+6%)	5mo	$109,900	$89	70
2601 Commercial St	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,212 (+3%)	3mo	$169,000	$139	66
2306 S 19th St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,280 (+9%)	2mo	$118,900	$93	60
2423 S 17th St	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-13%)	10mo	$119,000	$116	58
2314 S 19th St	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,064 (-9%)	11mo	$79,000	$74	57
3022 S 19th St	0.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-12%)	11mo	$47,500	$46	55
2326 South 19th St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,336 (+14%)	7mo	$129,000	$97	54
725 E Lake Blvd	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,162 (-1%)	18mo	$150,000	$129	51
3209 S 22nd St	0.50mi	2/1.0	999 (-15%)	18mo	$70,000	$70	37
1816 S 20th St	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,020 (-13%)	8mo	$165,000	$162	33
1821 Scott St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,345 (+15%)	10mo	$199,900	$149	30
2404 Shirley Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,300 (+11%)	13mo	$257,000	$198	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-549
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $17,510
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64503

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $466/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2219 S 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	0.60mi
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	44d	1	0.96mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 605 St Joseph, MO	2.0	2.0	1141	$940	$0.82	44d	1	1.10mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 22 St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	866	$998	$1.15	44d	1	1.10mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 603 St Joseph, MO	2.0	2.0	1176	$910	$0.77	44d	1	1.10mi
1106 Olive St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $90,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-01-23
   listed $90,000 Active 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Attention investors! This two bedroom, one bathroom home features updated luxury vinyl plank, hardwood floors, and carpet. Laundry hook-ups are available in the mudroom. The home is currently occupied by long-term tenants. This turn-key property will make a great addition to any portfolio!

10. 2025-03-29
    historical
11. 2024-12-08
    listed $85,000 Active
12. 2023-06-19
    historical
13. 2019-02-27
    soldstatus
14. 2019-02-04
    listed $17,900
15. 2003-06-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $466 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 87.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$466
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,238
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$297
• After-tax cash flow: $2,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 11,921

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.03%
• Current HPI: 185.3921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+402.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $90,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-29 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-08 Listed $85,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-19 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2019-02-27 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-04 Listed $17,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $466 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.