16919 Balmoral · Conroe, TX 77316

$162,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2022 2,099 sqft lot Est $164k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 1 Story stunner in popular Lake Conroe Village. This home is a great starter home with a split floor plan, open living space, island kitchen, granite counters LED lighting, ceiling fans in every bedroom and lovely kitchen cabinets. Location can't be beat, just a few minutes from the lake, with all the amenities Lake Conroe has to offer. This home is definitely a charmer, but hurry up and grab it before someone else does! Zoned to Montgomery ISD.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Single-story home
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• LAKE CONROE VILLAGE COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area approximately 1,040 (unit not displayed per instructions); Lot size about 2,100 square feet (unit indicated but excluded from interior/exterior sq.ft. mentions)
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Managed by Spectrum Association Management; Association fee of $32 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Public water and sewer (specifics not provided); Electric service available; Gas available
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Entry level information not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot described as 'Other'

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring throughout
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Gas line for cooling
• Interior features: Open-plan layout with 5 total rooms; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (utility details not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,456 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16891 W Dounreay St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-1%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	92
16895 W Dounreay St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-1%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	92
16899 W Dounreay St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-1%)	6mo	$161,900	$157	91
16902 W Alderson	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+2%)	2mo	$179,900	$170	89
241 Ridgeside	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-3%)	4mo	$160,000	$158	89
16965 W Hammon	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+2%)	1mo	$180,000	$169	87
16900 West Juneau	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,014 (-2%)	1mo	$153,000	$151	85
16930 W Lynbrook St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-1%)	5mo	$161,900	$157	81
16729 E Hammon	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+3%)	4mo	$177,900	$166	81
16725 E Hammon	0.24mi	3/2.0	958 (-8%)	4mo	$169,900	$177	72
846 Omeara	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,095 (+5%)	2mo	$170,000	$155	68
16938 W Lynbrook St	0.30mi	3/2.0	940 (-10%)	5mo	$157,900	$168	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,876
• Equity at exit: $24,289

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,121
• Equity at exit: $14,085

Cash invested: $45,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,663/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $162,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,725
• Closing costs: $4,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.01mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	12d	1	0.22mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.26mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	24d	1	0.52mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	43d	1	0.71mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	43d	1	0.77mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	20d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $162,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $164,900 Active
16. 2026-02-01
    historical $1,370
17. 2025-11-19
    listed $1,370
18. 2025-01-03
    historical $1,310
19. 2024-12-02
    price $1,310
20. 2024-11-25
    price $1,335
21. 2024-11-18
    price $1,360
22. 2024-11-16
    listed $1,395
23. 2024-10-03
    soldstatus
24. 2024-10-02
    soldstatus Sold 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Beautiful 1 Story stunner in popular Lake Conroe Village. This home is a great starter home with a split floor plan, open living space, island kitchen, granite counters LED lighting, ceiling fans in every bedroom and lovely kitchen cabinets. Location can't be beat, just a few minutes from the lake, with all the amenities Lake Conroe has to offer. This home is definitely a charmer, but hurry up and grab it before someone else does! Zoned to Montgomery ISD.

25. 2024-09-22
    status Pending 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Beautiful 1 Story stunner in popular Lake Conroe Village. This home is a great starter home with a split floor plan, open living space, island kitchen, granite counters LED lighting, ceiling fans in every bedroom and lovely kitchen cabinets. Location can't be beat, just a few minutes from the lake, with all the amenities Lake Conroe has to offer. This home is definitely a charmer, but hurry up and grab it before someone else does! Zoned to Montgomery ISD.

26. 2024-09-15
    status Option Pending 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Beautiful 1 Story stunner in popular Lake Conroe Village. This home is a great starter home with a split floor plan, open living space, island kitchen, granite counters LED lighting, ceiling fans in every bedroom and lovely kitchen cabinets. Location can't be beat, just a few minutes from the lake, with all the amenities Lake Conroe has to offer. This home is definitely a charmer, but hurry up and grab it before someone else does! Zoned to Montgomery ISD.

27. 2024-09-06
    listed $190,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Beautiful 1 Story stunner in popular Lake Conroe Village. This home is a great starter home with a split floor plan, open living space, island kitchen, granite counters LED lighting, ceiling fans in every bedroom and lovely kitchen cabinets. Location can't be beat, just a few minutes from the lake, with all the amenities Lake Conroe has to offer. This home is definitely a charmer, but hurry up and grab it before someone else does! Zoned to Montgomery ISD.

28. 2024-09-01
    historical $190,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Beautiful 1 Story stunner in popular Lake Conroe Village. This home is a great starter home with a split floor plan, open living space, island kitchen, granite counters LED lighting, ceiling fans in every bedroom and lovely kitchen cabinets. Location can't be beat, just a few minutes from the lake, with all the amenities Lake Conroe has to offer. This home is definitely a charmer, but hurry up and grab it before someone else does! Zoned to Montgomery ISD.

29. 2022-09-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,663 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$27/mo · 11.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,125
• − Property taxes: −$2,663
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$4,739
• Taxable loss: −$976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$234
• After-tax cash flow: $1,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Rental Removed $1,370 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-11-19 Listed for Rent $1,370 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-01-03 Rental Removed $1,310 RENT.
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $1,310 RENT.
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $1,335 RENT.
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $1,360 RENT.
• 2024-11-16 Listed for Rent $1,395 RENT.
• 2024-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-09-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Coming Soon $190,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+36.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,663 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.