1834 Balls Chapel Rd · Rose Hill, VA 24281

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1977 2.30 ac lot $79/sqft · 59% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 BEDROOM BRICK HOME FOR SALE ON MINI FARM IN THE HEART OF VIRGINIA'S HILL COUNTRY! This beautiful brick home features: 4 large bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, kitchen, covered patio perfect for entertaining, private setting in the country, large barn perfect for keeping farm animals, space for vegetable garden, full basement that could be finished or used for great storage! Make your Homestead dreams come true by living off the land here at 1834 Balls Chapel Rd Rose Hill VA! Call today to schedule your tour!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Full basement
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE SETTING
• LARGE BARN
• SPACE FOR VEGETABLE GARDEN
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Rose Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#49 in VA, #1,166 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $131,847 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,214
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 59.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $52,219
• Equity at exit: $94,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $146,715
• Equity at exit: $172,420

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24281

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $722/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,150

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $175	+0% $133	+5% $90	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $81	+0% $133	+5% $185	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $171	base $133	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   4 BEDROOM BRICK HOME FOR SALE ON MINI FARM IN THE HEART OF VIRGINIA'S HILL COUNTRY! This beautiful brick home features: 4 large bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, kitchen, covered patio perfect for entertaining, private setting in the country, large barn perfect for keeping farm animals, space for vegetable garden, full basement that could be finished or used for great storage! Make your Homestead dreams come true by living off the land here at 1834 Balls Chapel Rd Rose Hill VA! Call today to schedule your tour!

2. 2026-05-04
   price $149,900 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   4 BEDROOM BRICK HOME FOR SALE ON MINI FARM IN THE HEART OF VIRGINIA'S HILL COUNTRY! This beautiful brick home features: 4 large bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, kitchen, covered patio perfect for entertaining, private setting in the country, large barn perfect for keeping farm animals, space for vegetable garden, full basement that could be finished or used for great storage! Make your Homestead dreams come true by living off the land here at 1834 Balls Chapel Rd Rose Hill VA! Call today to schedule your tour!

3. 2026-03-04
   price $179,900 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   4 BEDROOM BRICK HOME FOR SALE ON MINI FARM IN THE HEART OF VIRGINIA'S HILL COUNTRY! This beautiful brick home features: 4 large bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, kitchen, covered patio perfect for entertaining, private setting in the country, large barn perfect for keeping farm animals, space for vegetable garden, full basement that could be finished or used for great storage! Make your Homestead dreams come true by living off the land here at 1834 Balls Chapel Rd Rose Hill VA! Call today to schedule your tour!

4. 2026-02-04
   listed $199,900 Active 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   4 BEDROOM BRICK HOME FOR SALE ON MINI FARM IN THE HEART OF VIRGINIA'S HILL COUNTRY! This beautiful brick home features: 4 large bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, kitchen, covered patio perfect for entertaining, private setting in the country, large barn perfect for keeping farm animals, space for vegetable garden, full basement that could be finished or used for great storage! Make your Homestead dreams come true by living off the land here at 1834 Balls Chapel Rd Rose Hill VA! Call today to schedule your tour!

5. 2024-03-27
   soldstatus $60,000
6. 2010-06-02
   soldstatus $24,000
7. 1999-04-13
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$507/yr (+$42/mo · 70.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$722
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $1,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rose Hill

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 28,136
• Population (ZIP): 2,327

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Current HPI: 142.4815
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+274.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $149,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $179,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $199,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $722 · +38.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.