863 4th St SW · Paris, TX 75460

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

7,971 sqft lot Est $63k · 10% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom, 2-full-bath home located just minutes from downtown! This property features a spacious 20x20 metal covered parking area and a functional floor plan ready for your personal touch. With some TLC, this home could be transformed into a great primary residence, rental, or investment property. Enjoy the convenience of nearby shopping, dining, and entertainment. Bring your vision and make this one your own!

Key facts

• Nearby entertainment
• Nearby dining
• Nearby shopping

Tags

• METAL COVERED PARKING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• NEARBY SHOPPING
• NEARBY DINING
• NEARBY ENTERTAINMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Special listing conditions: Standard; Transaction type: For sale
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; 1 carport space; 3 covered spaces
• Security: Security features: Unknown
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Accessible approach with ramp and customized wheelchair accessible features; Not attached to another property; Subdivision: Locust Hill
• Construction: Metal roof; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot (approx. 0.183 acres); All-weather road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (approx. 15 x 15)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One-level layout; Two living areas; One dining area; Room count: 2
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.7% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Givens Early Childhood Center (103 students, 93% FRL); Crockett Int (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 560 students, 79% FRL); Paris H S (math 60% / reading 51%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 934 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.31%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $62,612
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 W Washington St	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,608 (+13%)	4mo	$90,000	$56	67
844 1st St SW	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-12%)	9mo	$55,000	$44	61
947 SE 6th	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (-1%)	16mo	$50,000	$36	50
255 SW 7th St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (-14%)	4mo	$129,900	$106	44
715 W Kaufman St	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,243 (-13%)	10mo	$35,000	$28	44
341 Graham St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,367 (-4%)	22mo	$50,000	$37	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $24,024
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $66,305
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75460

• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $572	+0% $552	+5% $533	+10% $513
Rent	-10% $450	-5% $501	+0% $552	+5% $604	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $570	base $552	+0.5pp $535	+1.0pp $516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
649 E Price St Paris, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.92mi
635 7th St SW Paris, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	903	$1,200	$1.33	45d	16	0.95mi
2121 Cedar St Paris, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,000	$1.43	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $69,000
18. 2026-03-11
    price $76,500
19. 2026-02-12
    price $77,500
20. 2026-01-15
    listed $80,000 Active
21. 2022-07-11
    soldstatus
22. 2008-03-10
    soldstatus
23. 2006-10-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,020 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$243/yr (+$20/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $5,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $5,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• County: Lamar County · 23,426 people
• City population: 23,426
• Metro: Paris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,426
• Household income: $46,473
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1355.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 145.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paris, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $69,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $76,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $77,500 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,020 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.