1475 Gosser Ridge Rd · Liberty, KY 42539

$157,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 725 Days on market

Built 1950 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Set in the country, surrounded by farmland, this cozy 2B/1B sets on a corner acre lot. This home features hardwood flooring in the living room and bedrooms, and a full walk out basement. There is plenty of space for a garden and small animals. Selling AS IS but with updates and some TLC, this could be the perfect little farm house or investment property. Additional acreage could be negotiated.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 725 days

Tags

• FULL WALK OUT BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Has carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; One story
• Construction: Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Block foundation; Rural, trees/woods and farm views; Not on waterfront; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump; Wood heating (wood stove or similar); Heat pump cooling; Has heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Storm windows; Blinds; Accessible entrance; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.7% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#185 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Casey County (rural): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jones Park Elementary (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 289 students, 73% FRL); Casey County Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 513 students, 68% FRL); Casey County High School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #21 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 607 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Casey County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 725 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,385 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 725 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.70%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $79,393
• Equity at exit: $141,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $238,640
• Equity at exit: $305,988

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42539

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $139,970

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10	-5% $-55	+0% $-99	+5% $-144	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-142	+0% $-99	+5% $-56	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-59	base $-99	+0.5pp $-140	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $157,500 Active 725 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $157,500 Active 724 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,500 Active 722 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,500 Active 721 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,500 Active 720 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,500 Active 719 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,500 Active 717 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $157,500 Active 716 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,500 Active 713 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $157,500 Active 712 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $157,500 Active 711 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $157,500 Active 710 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $157,500 Active 707 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $157,500 Active 706 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,500 Active 705 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,500 Active 704 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,500 Active 703 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    status Active
19. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
20. 2025-06-11
    status Active
21. 2025-06-03
    historical
22. 2025-06-02
    status Active
23. 2025-05-31
    historical
24. 2025-05-30
    status Active
25. 2025-05-16
    historical
26. 2024-11-15
    status Active
27. 2024-11-04
    historical
28. 2024-08-12
    price $157,500
29. 2024-05-14
    listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,354 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$588/yr (+$49/mo · 76.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$968
• After-tax cash flow: $-223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casey County
• NCES district ID: 2101050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $30,133
• Composite: 32.59/100
• National rank: #5675
• State rank: #39 of 165 in KY

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #9229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,406

Population outlook (Casey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,212 people
• By 2030: 14,709 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 13,684 · -10.0%
• By 2050: 12,709 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 10,716 · -29.6%
• By 2100: 9,141 · -39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Casey

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.4) · D 11.4% · R 87.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -58.1pp · 2024: -76.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.4 2020: R+73.4 2016: R+73.2 2012: R+62.7 2008: R+58.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.68%
• Current HPI: 235.5807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-11 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-02 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-30 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-15 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-08-12 Price Changed $157,500 ImagineMLS
• 2024-05-14 Listed $159,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.