19649 Utopia Ln · Estero, FL 33928

$518,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,859 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2021 9,382 sqft lot Est $567k · 8% under $455/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 19649 Utopia Lane, located in the highly sought-after, resort-style community of The Place at Corkscrew. This beautifully upgraded home offers a thoughtfully designed layout ideal for both everyday living and effortless entertaining, with world-class amenities just moments away. Spanning 1,849 square feet, this open-concept residence features 2 bedrooms plus a versatile den, 2 bathrooms, and a seamless blend of comfort, style, and functionality. Whether you’re hosting friends and family or enjoying a quiet evening at home, the spacious living areas provide the perfect setting. This home is well-suited for full-time living, seasonal enjoyment, or investment opportunities. Th

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Marble backsplash
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• MARBLE BACKSPLASH
• PRIVATE PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $519k).
• Recommended offer: $472k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,301/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($472k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $472,280 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $566,995
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19601 Utopia Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,998 (+8%)	23mo	$595,000	$298	56
19555 Utopia Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-9%)	16mo	$515,000	$305	55
19431 Elston Way	0.51mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,032 (+9%)	2mo	$564,900	$278	50
17005 Ashcomb Way	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,010 (+8%)	22mo	$730,000	$363	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-74,246
• Equity at exit: $77,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-91,422
• Equity at exit: $44,873

Cash invested: $145,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,790/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$455
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,113
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,800

Max offer price $518,990

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $689	-5% $542	+0% $395	+5% $248	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $186	+0% $395	+5% $605	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $657	-0.5pp $527	base $395	+0.5pp $261	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,748
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	22d	1	0.20mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$5,995	$2.98	24d	1	0.24mi
19565 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	24d	1	0.32mi
19527 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	24d	1	0.33mi
19824 Beechcrest Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$7,000	$3.18	24d	1	0.46mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	24d	1	0.62mi
20040 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	4.0	2534	$3,800	$1.50	24d	1	0.65mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	24d	1	0.66mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	24d	1	0.73mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	4d	1	0.74mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2621	$3,495	$1.33	17d	1	0.74mi
19265 Elston Way Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	24d	1	0.75mi
18315 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$4,995	$2.04	4d	1	0.83mi
19952 Beverly Park Rd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	24d	1	0.91mi
18278 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$7,500	$3.08	24d	1	0.98mi
20179 Millrun Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2493	$4,300	$1.72	24d	1	1.02mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	17d	1	1.09mi
18334 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$4,700	$1.93	22d	1	1.11mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	24d	1	1.14mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	24d	1	1.21mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	24d	1	1.23mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	24d	1	1.29mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	4d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $455 · $5,460/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $518,990
3. 2026-03-06
   price $535,990
4. 2026-02-23
   price $539,990
5. 2026-02-05
   price $549,990
6. 2026-01-09
   price $564,990
7. 2025-12-22
   listed $584,990 Active
8. 2019-01-23
   soldstatus $10,822,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,790 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,790 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$4,790
• − Insurance: −$2,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,088
• − Management: −$5,088
• − HOA: −$5,460
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable loss: −$3,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$860
• After-tax cash flow: $5,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $518,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $535,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $539,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $549,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $564,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $584,990 FORTMLS
• 2019-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $10,822,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,790 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.