8811 Knox St · Houston, TX 77088

$225,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 7,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand New Home with large open are

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $225,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $218,746.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Osborne El (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,207 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 315 students, 99% FRL); Williams Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Washington B T H S (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 878 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,890 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,746
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1042 Marcolin St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (+9%)	1mo	$155,000	$106	75
8401 Hanfro Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+1%)	1mo	$208,000	$153	68
8414 Williamsdell St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (+5%)	1mo	$210,000	$149	64
882 Fortune St St	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,379 (+3%)	0mo	$265,000	$192	61
1001 Reverend B J Lewis Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-5%)	9mo	$264,999	$208	60
938 Ellington St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-9%)	9mo	$225,000	$184	60
1559 Diplomat Way	0.20mi	4/1.5	1,158 (-14%)	5mo	$159,990	$138	59
1093 Junell St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,410 (+5%)	3mo	$185,000	$131	52
1479 Ferguson Way	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,469 (+10%)	6mo	$275,000	$187	47
1806 Saddle Rock Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,466 (+9%)	7mo	$156,900	$107	40
7921 Virgil St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,197 (-11%)	6mo	$225,000	$188	36
940 Lucky St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	8mo	$249,900	$163	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-35,386
• Equity at exit: $32,616

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-46,039
• Equity at exit: $18,913

Cash invested: $61,249 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,147
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,339/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $218,746

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $156	+0% $94	+5% $32	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $14	+0% $94	+5% $175	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $150	base $94	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,686
• Closing costs: $6,562
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1495 W Gulf Bank Rd Houston, TX	5.0	2.5	1713	$1,750	$1.02	46d	1	0.35mi
929 Marjorie St Unit 1060806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$3,091	$2.87	9d	1	0.42mi
8406 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,695	$1.06	45d	1	0.46mi
8404 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	45d	1	0.47mi
8312 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	22d	1	0.48mi
8312 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	22d	1	0.48mi
8310 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	22d	1	0.49mi
8306 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	22d	1	0.49mi
8304 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	0.50mi
1010 Junell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	26d	1	0.51mi
8122 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.51mi
8120 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.51mi
8120 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	0.51mi
8118 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.51mi
1450 Dewalt St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1371	$2,500	$1.82	45d	1	0.52mi
8112 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	1d	1	0.53mi
8110 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.54mi
8108 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.54mi
1438 Peach Spring Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	1288	$1,599	$1.24	3d	1	0.59mi
9002 Bunny Run Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,950	$1.26	26d	1	0.82mi
783 Fortune St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$1,795	$1.35	18d	1	0.83mi
7514 Sandle St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,999	$1.31	45d	1	0.97mi
1032 Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	45d	1	1.01mi
855 S Victory Dr Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1546	$2,300	$1.49	45d	1	1.06mi
7486 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,290	$1.10	45d	1	1.19mi
2320 Wavell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,900	$1.65	45d	1	1.20mi
2320 Wavell St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,683	$1.46	45d	1	1.20mi
2407 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1195	$1,650	$1.38	45d	1	1.22mi
7903 Moon Beam St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1217	$1,700	$1.40	18d	1	1.39mi
7504 Carver Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,500	$1.48	1d	1	1.40mi
7504 Carver Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,500	$1.48	7d	1	1.40mi
8101 Venus St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,595	$1.16	26d	1	1.49mi
8101 Venus St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,699	$1.24	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-23
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,339 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,253
• − Property taxes: −$3,339
• − Insurance: −$1,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$6,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$599
• After-tax cash flow: $1,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+38.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,339 · +84.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.