895 Calle Alabastro · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 2011 0.53 ac lot Est $243k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home has been tastefully remodeled and what a great opportunity for you to make this 3-bedroom 2 bath home yours. The property is located minutes away from the freeway right off of exit 12. The interior features a nice-size living area with plenty of natural lighting, perfect for entertaining. Including well-appointed kitchen featuring gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops and SS appliances. The primary suite has new vanity. sinks, and a walk-in closet. A unique opportunity for you to make it your own and put your personal touches. Don't miss out and come see this, Gem. This home qulifies for a ZERO down payment program. Ask your lender for more information.

Key facts

• No carpet
• Water softener
• Ss appliances

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SS APPLIANCES
• WALKING CLOSET
• NO CARPET
• FRUIT TREES
• WATER SOFTENER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SCC - R-1
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Decorative gravel; North/South exposure; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave; Water purifier
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Double pane windows; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (35.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #944 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 387 students, 83% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,944 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,065
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
895 Calle Alabastro	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+4%)	1mo	$252,000	$173	93
885 Via Rosamorada	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-4%)	10mo	$245,000	$181	81
896 Via Rosamorada	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+7%)	0mo	$290,000	$193	79
903 Paseo Comanche	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+4%)	9mo	$285,000	$195	78
914 Mura Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-7%)	16mo	$220,000	$169	67
895 Via Esmeralda --	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,300 (-8%)	2mo	$167,000	$128	67
84 Alami Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	18mo	$243,000	$161	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $128,456
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $390,449
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,268/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,033

Max offer price $221,294

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-19
   historical Active Contingent
2. 2026-01-22
   price $265,000
3. 2026-01-09
   price $272,500
4. 2025-11-26
   price $279,700
5. 2025-11-19
   price $283,000
6. 2025-10-30
   listed $285,000 Active
7. 2023-10-20
   soldstatus $250,000 Closed 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   This beautiful home has been tastefully remodeled and what a great opportunity for you to make this 3-bedroom 2 bath home yours. The property is located minutes away from the freeway right off of exit 12. The interior features a nice-size living area with plenty of natural lighting, perfect for entertaining. Including well-appointed kitchen featuring gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops and SS appliances. The primary suite has new vanity. sinks, and a walk-in closet. A unique opportunity for you to make it your own and put your personal touches. Don't miss out and come see this, Gem. This home qulifies for a ZERO down payment program. Ask your lender for more information.

8. 2023-10-20
   soldstatus $250,000

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   This beautiful home has been tastefully remodeled and what a great opportunity for you to make this 3-bedroom 2 bath home yours. The property is located minutes away from the freeway right off of exit 12. The interior features a nice-size living area with plenty of natural lighting, perfect for entertaining. Including well-appointed kitchen featuring gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops and SS appliances. The primary suite has new vanity. sinks, and a walk-in closet. A unique opportunity for you to make it your own and put your personal touches. Don't miss out and come see this, Gem. This home qulifies for a ZERO down payment program. Ask your lender for more information.

9. 2023-10-14
   status Pending 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   This beautiful home has been tastefully remodeled and what a great opportunity for you to make this 3-bedroom 2 bath home yours. The property is located minutes away from the freeway right off of exit 12. The interior features a nice-size living area with plenty of natural lighting, perfect for entertaining. Including well-appointed kitchen featuring gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops and SS appliances. The primary suite has new vanity. sinks, and a walk-in closet. A unique opportunity for you to make it your own and put your personal touches. Don't miss out and come see this, Gem. This home qulifies for a ZERO down payment program. Ask your lender for more information.

10. 2023-10-02
    historical Active Contingent 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    This beautiful home has been tastefully remodeled and what a great opportunity for you to make this 3-bedroom 2 bath home yours. The property is located minutes away from the freeway right off of exit 12. The interior features a nice-size living area with plenty of natural lighting, perfect for entertaining. Including well-appointed kitchen featuring gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops and SS appliances. The primary suite has new vanity. sinks, and a walk-in closet. A unique opportunity for you to make it your own and put your personal touches. Don't miss out and come see this, Gem. This home qulifies for a ZERO down payment program. Ask your lender for more information.

11. 2023-09-19
    listed $265,000 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    This beautiful home has been tastefully remodeled and what a great opportunity for you to make this 3-bedroom 2 bath home yours. The property is located minutes away from the freeway right off of exit 12. The interior features a nice-size living area with plenty of natural lighting, perfect for entertaining. Including well-appointed kitchen featuring gorgeous cabinets, granite countertops and SS appliances. The primary suite has new vanity. sinks, and a walk-in closet. A unique opportunity for you to make it your own and put your personal touches. Don't miss out and come see this, Gem. This home qulifies for a ZERO down payment program. Ask your lender for more information.

12. 2012-06-22
    soldstatus $95,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    New construction home in Ruby Road. Corner lot. This three bedroom/2bath home will have vaulted ceilings, ceramic tile floors, walk in closet and more.

13. 2011-05-06
    listed $99,900 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    New construction home in Ruby Road. Corner lot. This three bedroom/2bath home will have vaulted ceilings, ceramic tile floors, walk in closet and more.

14. 2011-02-17
    soldstatus $8,000
15. 2011-01-29
    listed $8,000
16. 2011-01-21
    historical
17. 2010-01-21
    listed $9,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,268 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,749 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$481/yr (+$40/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,268
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,875
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2551.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $265,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $272,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $279,700 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $283,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-30 Listed $285,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-20 Sold (MLS) $250,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-14 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-02 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-19 Listed $265,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-06-22 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-05-06 Listed $99,900 MLSSAZ
• 2011-02-17 Sold (MLS) $8,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-01-29 Listed $8,000 MLSSAZ
• 2011-01-21 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2010-01-21 Listed $9,995 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,268 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.