6193 Natchez Dr · Beecher, MI 48458

$129,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1959 6,098 sqft lot Est $103k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely remodeled in 2026, this move-in ready home in Mount Morris offers modern updates and plenty of living space throughout! Featuring new luxury vinyl flooring, fresh paint, updated lighting fixtures, and a beautifully renovated kitchen with new cabinets, sink, tile, and stylish backsplash. New Roof, Furnace, Water Heater all installed in 2026. The main level offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a spacious living room, and an additional family room providing plenty of room for entertaining or relaxing. The basement adds even more functional living space with a 4th bedroom complete with a closet. A laundry area, and a large recreation/second family room and great storage area. Convenientl

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity (1.5 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Natural gas for heat and water heater; Central A/C; No water utility specified
• Home design: Residential property; 1-story structure; Built in 1959
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Exterior balcony; Paved street access; Frontage approximately 60 feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the entry level (approx. 12 x 12, 12 x 12, 12 wide)
• Flooring: Concrete flooring in great room and laundry; Ceramic flooring in bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with ceramic flooring (entry level, approx. 12 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Total of 10 rooms; Partially finished basement; Basement great room (concrete flooring)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement (concrete flooring, approx. 14 x 14); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($737/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 11.4% in Beecher — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#603 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dailey Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,325 of 1,397 statewide, top 99%, 312 students, 96% FRL); Beecher High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #659 of 713 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 797% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $130k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $111,861 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1207 Orange Blossom Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+1%)	6mo	$77,000	$48	77
6164 Natchez Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,416 (-10%)	6mo	$90,000	$64	75
6094 Penwood Rd	0.26mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,480 (-6%)	3mo	$122,000	$82	70
6149 Flowerday Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,468 (-7%)	8mo	$5,000	$3	67
1278 W Klein St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,744 (+10%)	1mo	$132,000	$76	62
1169 Oleander Dr	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,450 (-8%)	5mo	$105,000	$72	55
1627 Mcalpine Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,425 (-10%)	0mo	$230,000	$161	51
1617 Mcalpine Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,739 (+10%)	7mo	$243,000	$140	51
1163 Peachtree Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-15%)	4mo	$34,500	$26	47
2210 O'brien Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-8%)	4mo	$94,900	$65	45
1432 Charwood Rd	0.31mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,353 (-14%)	12mo	$45,000	$33	45
5482 Harvard St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,808 (+14%)	12mo	$73,500	$41	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,185
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,050
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48458

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,037/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $98	+0% $61	+5% $25	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $17	+0% $61	+5% $106	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $94	base $61	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6230 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,000	$0.94	15d	1	0.05mi
6113 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$990	$0.90	45d	1	0.18mi
48 Sunny Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,100	$0.58	45d	1	0.53mi
1 Sunny Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.54mi
2216 Obrien Rd Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	15d	1	0.74mi
5280 Cedar Shores Ct Flint, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1150	$1,148	$1.00	15d	6	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,999 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,999 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,999 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,999 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,999 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,999 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,999 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,999 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,999 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,999 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,999 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,999 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on marketlisting id $129,999 Active 1 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    historical $129,999
18. 2004-07-14
    soldstatus $67,500
19. 2004-02-06
    soldstatus $14,000
20. 2003-12-17
    soldstatus $14,000
21. 2003-12-17
    soldstatus $14,000
22. 2003-11-19
    historical
23. 2003-10-27
    listed $14,500
24. 2003-10-27
    listed $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 46.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,037
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$354
• After-tax cash flow: $1,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beecher Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604500
• Math proficiency: 7% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,719
• Composite: 9.96/100
• National rank: #14685
• State rank: #722 of 760 in MI

Livability — Beecher

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #19782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beecher, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,519
• Household income: $46,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.45%
• Current HPI: 244.2061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+796.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Coming Soon $129,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2004-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-17 Sold (MLS) $14,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-12-17 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-11-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-10-27 Listed $14,500 REALCOMP
• 2003-10-27 Listed $14,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,037 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.