4695 Browns Mill Ferry Rd · Stonecrest, GA 30038

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1983 0.35 ac lot Est $209k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4695 Browns Mill Ferry Road, a beautifully character-filled ranch residence located in the heart of Lithonia's established Chestnut Lake Preserve community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom 1312 sqft home perfectly blends classic 1970s architecture with standout modern curb appeal, highlighted by an attractive decorative stone application that complements the durable vinyl exterior. As you approach, you are greeted by a long, inviting covered front porch-the ideal spot for morning coffee or relaxing in the evening shade. Step inside to discover a seamless flow defined by warm hardwoods that run throughout the entire home, offering both beauty and easy maintenance. The heart of the home

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Walk in closet
• Wood privacy fence

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WOOD BURNING MASONRY FIREPLACE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DEDICATED FULL BATHROOM
• UTILITY AND LAUNDRY ROOM
• WOOD PRIVACY FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($20/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.1% in Stonecrest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Browns Mill Elementary School (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #988 of 1,228 statewide, top 81%, 383 students, 100% FRL); Salem Middle School (math 5% / reading 16%, grade F, #429 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 988 students, 100% FRL); Martin Luther King- Jr. High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,440 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $200k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,235 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,608
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6588 Browns Mill Ferry Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+2%)	7mo	$246,000	$183	84
6731 Browns Mill Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+7%)	4mo	$223,700	$160	83
6873 Browns Mill Lake Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-6%)	10mo	$214,000	$173	74
6795 Browns Mill Walk	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+7%)	12mo	$244,000	$175	74
4378 Chestnut Oaks Trce	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+9%)	8mo	$225,000	$157	63
4496 Housworth Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-5%)	3mo	$190,000	$152	61
6613 Chestnut Oaks Rdg	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,438 (+10%)	8mo	$186,500	$130	61
4237 Chestnut Lake Ave	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,469 (+12%)	2mo	$200,000	$136	60
7037 Mahonia Pl	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,506 (+15%)	3mo	$200,000	$133	60
4780 Browns Mill Ferry Rd	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,494 (+14%)	8mo	$245,000	$164	58
6572 Chestnut Oaks Rdg	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+14%)	6mo	$195,000	$130	53
7074 Ravenwood Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,508 (+15%)	5mo	$240,000	$159	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,072
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,571
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30038

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,435/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,900

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6626 Browns Mill Ferry Dr Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,820	$1.32	2d	1	0.13mi
6700 Browns Mill Ferry Dr Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,765	$1.11	5d	1	0.15mi
7093 Mahonia Pl Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,895	$1.26	24d	1	0.22mi
6940 Red Bone Way Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1494	$1,949	$1.30	5d	1	0.26mi
6957 Mahonia Pl Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,931	$1.24	43d	1	0.27mi
6613 Chestnut Oaks Rdg Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,985	$1.38	5d	1	0.31mi
7020 Setters Way Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,819	$1.16	43d	1	0.32mi
6989 Setters Way Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	1526	$1,795	$1.18	5d	1	0.35mi
4848 Browns Mill Ferry Rd Lithonia, GA	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,195	$1.20	24d	1	0.36mi
7152 Ravenwood Ln Lithonia, GA	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,915	$1.28	43d	1	0.39mi
4868 Browns Mill Ferry Rd Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1606	$1,927	$1.20	43d	1	0.40mi
6858 Mahonia Pl Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1580	$1,695	$1.07	43d	1	0.45mi
7132 Bowie Dr Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1571	$1,904	$1.21	12d	1	0.46mi
7078 Bowie Dr Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	1571	$1,781	$1.13	43d	1	0.56mi
6609 Carmen Ct Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,200	$0.73	17d	1	0.64mi
4393 English Loop Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	19d	1	0.85mi
6354 Klondike River Rd Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,830	$1.20	43d	1	0.93mi
6950 Carleen Ct Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1784	$1,945	$1.09	12d	1	0.94mi
6265 Leverett Dr Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,595	$1.16	24d	1	0.97mi
6274 Varnay Ct Stonecrest, GA	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,915	$1.34	15d	1	1.01mi
6295 Klondike River Rd Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	1742	$1,930	$1.11	5d	1	1.07mi
4651 Jackam Ridge Ct Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,970	$1.37	43d	1	1.10mi
4675 Forest Creek Ln Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	1854	$2,200	$1.19	43d	1	1.16mi
4636 Forest Creek Ln Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1476	$1,650	$1.12	24d	1	1.17mi
6269 Cathedral Ln Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,725	$1.30	12d	1	1.21mi
4609 Post Ridge Ln Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,855	$1.21	43d	1	1.36mi
4756 Golod Way Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,820	$1.15	24d	1	1.38mi
4744 Golod Way Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,695	$1.07	43d	1	1.39mi
4618 Idlewood Park Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1684	$1,795	$1.07	20d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Price Change 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    status Under Contract
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $209,900 New
16. 2006-07-14
    soldstatus $109,900
17. 1984-03-30
    soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,435 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,435 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,435
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$785
• After-tax cash flow: $805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Stonecrest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stonecrest, GA
• County: Dekalb County · 782,738 people
• City population: 106,165
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 43,776
• Household income: $73,694
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 4% Asian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.98%
• Current HPI: 192.8328
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+285.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $209,900 GAMLS
• 2006-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 1984-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,435 · +30.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.