12610 Pirate Bend Dr · Texas City, TX 77539

$259,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · SingleFamily · 268 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition 5,305 sqft lot $153/sqft · 8% below area Est $283k · 8% under $120/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER ***This home checks all the boxes***NO FLOOD(x-zone)--3BR, spacious Open Concept Chefs Kitchen & Living/Family Rm. Granite counters, center island breakfast bar+pantry. Soft close drawers/cabinets. High Ceilings & Primary BR features walk-in closet, double vanity, garden size soaker tub, separate shower. Full brick surrounds home with cement board soffit/fascia+under-eave lighting in front of home. Whole house LED lighting and 2" Wood Plantation Blinds. Mature trees and landscaped front yard w/manual sprinkler system. Amenities: 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, 2 resort-style pools, splash pad, trails, Dog park, Soccer fields, 1/2 B-Ball Crt, two fitness centers + a Club House AND they're adding a pickleball court! Also subdivision security is all part of the resort-style living in the Lago Mar planned community. Relax with Bay Area breezes as you enjoy the white-sand beaches, swim in crystal waters or dine lagoon side. Nationally recognized dining & shopping nearby.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Walk-in closet
• Granite counters

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT CHEFS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• CENTER ISLAND BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY
• GARDEN SIZE SOAKER TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 678 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,387 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,574
• List price: $259,800
• Delta: -8.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2317 Nautica Terrace Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,666 (-2%)	1mo	$242,500	$146	90
2322 Nautica Terrace Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-7%)	1mo	$250,000	$159	80
2315 Oyster Bay Ave	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,615 (-5%)	3mo	$250,000	$155	79
109 Indigo Brush Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,719 (+1%)	4mo	$235,000	$137	77
2210 Mirror Ridge Ct	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,831 (+8%)	5mo	$299,990	$164	75
2215 Manta Way	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-7%)	1mo	$245,000	$156	74
12801 Pirate Bend Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-9%)	4mo	$264,000	$172	74
13137 Leisure Cove Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+5%)	2mo	$309,900	$174	58
211 Hawks View Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,875 (+11%)	1mo	$267,500	$143	52
6 Prairie Oaks Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+10%)	4mo	$295,000	$159	52
2910 Mariner Island Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,819 (+7%)	3mo	$358,990	$197	51
13421 Diamond Reef Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+12%)	1mo	$284,900	$150	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-56,238
• Equity at exit: $38,737

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-84,049
• Equity at exit: $22,463

Cash invested: $72,744 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 678
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,897/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,425

Max offer price $242,572

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-29	+0% $-119	+5% $-209	+10% $-299
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-209	+0% $-119	+5% $-29	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $12	-0.5pp $-53	base $-119	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,950
• Closing costs: $7,794
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	24d	1	0.16mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	7d	1	0.35mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	0.40mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	13d	1	0.42mi
114 Mustang Stampede Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,050	$1.17	3d	1	0.51mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,430	$2.45	0d	21	0.66mi
3210 Gulf Fwy Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,780	$2.04	0d	12	0.88mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,800 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,800 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,800 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,800 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,800 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,800 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,800 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,800 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $259,800 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,800 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,800 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,800 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,800 Active 248 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,800 Active 247 DOM
15. 2026-01-30
    price $264,800 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER ***This home checks all the boxes***NO FLOOD(x-zone)--3BR, spacious Open Concept Chefs Kitchen & Living/Family Rm. Granite counters, center island breakfast bar+pantry. Soft close drawers/cabinets. High Ceilings & Primary BR features walk-in closet, double vanity, garden size soaker tub, separate shower. Full brick surrounds home with cement board soffit/fascia+under-eave lighting in front of home. Whole house LED lighting and 2" Wood Plantation Blinds. Mature trees and landscaped front yard w/manual sprinkler system. Amenities: 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, 2 resort-style pools, splash pad, trails, Dog park, Soccer fields, 1/2 B-Ball Crt, two fitness centers + a Club House AND they're adding a pickleball court! Also subdivision security is all part of the resort-style living in the Lago Mar planned community. Relax with Bay Area breezes as you enjoy the white-sand beaches, swim in crystal waters or dine lagoon side. Nationally recognized dining & shopping nearby.

16. 2025-09-26
    listed $268,800 Active 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER ***This home checks all the boxes***NO FLOOD(x-zone)--3BR, spacious Open Concept Chefs Kitchen & Living/Family Rm. Granite counters, center island breakfast bar+pantry. Soft close drawers/cabinets. High Ceilings & Primary BR features walk-in closet, double vanity, garden size soaker tub, separate shower. Full brick surrounds home with cement board soffit/fascia+under-eave lighting in front of home. Whole house LED lighting and 2" Wood Plantation Blinds. Mature trees and landscaped front yard w/manual sprinkler system. Amenities: 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, 2 resort-style pools, splash pad, trails, Dog park, Soccer fields, 1/2 B-Ball Crt, two fitness centers + a Club House AND they're adding a pickleball court! Also subdivision security is all part of the resort-style living in the Lago Mar planned community. Relax with Bay Area breezes as you enjoy the white-sand beaches, swim in crystal waters or dine lagoon side. Nationally recognized dining & shopping nearby.

17. 2025-08-31
    historical
18. 2025-07-15
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2025-07-15
    historical
20. 2025-05-01
    price $275,000
21. 2025-03-21
    listed $279,900 Active
22. 2025-02-08
    historical
23. 2024-11-11
    listed $280,000 Active
24. 2023-07-31
    historical
25. 2023-06-01
    price $270,000
26. 2023-05-13
    price $280,000
27. 2023-05-01
    status Active
28. 2023-04-30
    historical
29. 2023-03-29
    price $290,800
30. 2023-02-24
    price $294,900
31. 2022-11-25
    listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,553
• − Property taxes: −$3,897
• − Insurance: −$1,299
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$7,558
• Taxable loss: −$5,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-30/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The property is located in a desirable neighborhood with amenities such as a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon and two resort-style pools. The home is move-in ready and has a good ROI potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and attracts buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $264,800 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $268,800 HARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-11 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-01 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-13 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-29 Price Changed $290,800 HARMLS
• 2023-02-24 Price Changed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2022-11-25 Listed $299,900 HARMLS