118 E Chestnut St · Morenci, MI 49256

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 9,148 sqft lot Est $167k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come tour this inviting 5-bedroom home in the heart of Morenci! This spacious residence offers a functional and versatile layout, featuring a formal dining room perfect for family gatherings and entertaining. The main floor includes three comfortable bedrooms, a full bathroom, convenient main-floor laundry, and plenty of living space for everyday comfort. Upstairs, you'll find two additional generously sized bedrooms, providing flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing households. Enjoy your morning coffee on the welcoming front porch or spend time outdoors in the large backyard, offering plenty of room for recreation, gardening, or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and parks, this home combines space, comfort, and small-town charm. Don't miss your opportunity to make this Morenci gem your own!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Front porch
• Large backyard

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas water heater
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property type; Shingle roof; Built in 1900
• Construction: Vinyl siding; 1,416 total building area
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot about 0.21 acres; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (10 x 14); Bedroom 2 (10 x 14); Bedroom 3 (8 x 18); Bedroom 4 (7 x 11); Bedroom 5 (13 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Historic architectural style; 8 total rooms; Michigan basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in MI, #4,401 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Morenci Area Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #283 of 540 in MI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,026 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 Maple Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-1%)	11mo	$204,500	$146	81
221 N Summit St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,467 (+4%)	7mo	$134,000	$91	80
524 Maple Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,256 (-11%)	1mo	$77,000	$61	78
314 Whitney Ave	0.43mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,427 (+1%)	4mo	$109,000	$76	68
202 E Locust Rd	0.25mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,297 (-8%)	2mo	$170,000	$131	68
426 S East St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,456 (+3%)	0mo	$180,000	$124	66
114 Elm St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,404 (-1%)	11mo	$165,000	$118	61
616 E Main St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,558 (+10%)	2mo	$141,000	$91	59
115 W Stephenson St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-5%)	11mo	$160,000	$119	56
324 Owosso	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+2%)	11mo	$145,000	$101	53
440 Whitney Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,237 (-13%)	2mo	$179,900	$145	52
414 Centre St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,249 (-12%)	13mo	$75,900	$61	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $80,841
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $227,903
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49256

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $939/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $237	+0% $202	+5% $166	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $152	+0% $202	+5% $251	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $233	base $202	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Come tour this inviting 5-bedroom home in the heart of Morenci! This spacious residence offers a functional and versatile layout, featuring a formal dining room perfect for family gatherings and entertaining. The main floor includes three comfortable bedrooms, a full bathroom, convenient main-floor laundry, and plenty of living space for everyday comfort. Upstairs, you'll find two additional generously sized bedrooms, providing flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing households. Enjoy your morning coffee on the welcoming front porch or spend time outdoors in the large backyard, offering plenty of room for recreation, gardening, or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and parks, this home combines space, comfort, and small-town charm. Don't miss your opportunity to make this Morenci gem your own!

13. 2026-06-01
    listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Come tour this inviting 5-bedroom home in the heart of Morenci! This spacious residence offers a functional and versatile layout, featuring a formal dining room perfect for family gatherings and entertaining. The main floor includes three comfortable bedrooms, a full bathroom, convenient main-floor laundry, and plenty of living space for everyday comfort. Upstairs, you'll find two additional generously sized bedrooms, providing flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing households. Enjoy your morning coffee on the welcoming front porch or spend time outdoors in the large backyard, offering plenty of room for recreation, gardening, or relaxing evenings. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and parks, this home combines space, comfort, and small-town charm. Don't miss your opportunity to make this Morenci gem your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $939 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$492/yr (+$41/mo · 52.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$939
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$96
• After-tax cash flow: $2,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morenci Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624570
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,503
• Composite: 30.09/100
• National rank: #6340
• State rank: #283 of 540 in MI

Livability — Morenci

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morenci, MI
• County: Lenawee · 10,162 people
• Population (ZIP): 3,830
• Household income: $60,982
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.27%
• Current HPI: 304.604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+177.6% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-01 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $124,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-27 Sold (MLS) $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-27 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-17 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-17 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-01 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-01 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-06 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-03-06 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $94,875 REALCOMP
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $94,875 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $94,875 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $94,875 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $99,875 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $99,875 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-18 Listed $109,875 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-18 Listed $109,875 REALCOMP
• 2022-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-09 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2022-08-09 Sold (MLS) $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-08-04 Pending — Greater Lansing AoR
• 2022-07-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-06-06 Listed $79,500 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2022-06-06 Listed $79,500 REALCOMP
• 2022-01-17 Listing Removed — Greater Lansing AoR
• 2022-01-06 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-01-06 Listed $45,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2015-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $939 · -52.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.