607 Winding Way St · Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$164,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,446 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1525 Days on market

Built 1990 9,343 sqft lot $67/sqft · 35% below area Est $254k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 2 story home with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths, possible 7 bedrooms, there is a bonus room off the kitchen and bonus room upstairs. Has a 1 car garage. Fenced back yard with a porch and front porch on the front. Extra parking on the side. Home has hardwood floors in living room. This home needs some TLC but could be a great home.

Key facts

• 9,343 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1990

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax details and assessments excluded
• Financial info: Lease considered: No
• HOA & community: Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Attached carport (1 car)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1990; Block foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Concrete road surface; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 13); Four additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 12 x 12, 13 x 12, 12 x 12, 12 x 12)
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor; Additional bathrooms on first and second floors
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Subdivision lot setting
• Laundry & utility: Utility and laundry locations not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Jackson Int (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 868 students, 59% FRL); Brazoswood H S (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,398 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1525 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 1525 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,846
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -35.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Oyster Creek Ct	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,524 (+3%)	10mo	$449,900	$178	60
109 Banyan St	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,395 (-2%)	11mo	$330,000	$138	53
205 Nasturtium St	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,471 (+1%)	10mo	$260,000	$105	50
113 Persimmon Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,259 (-8%)	11mo	$379,000	$168	45
124 Sage St	0.75mi	5/3.0	2,507 (+2%)	11mo	$250,000	$100	44
244 Narcissus St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,248 (-8%)	12mo	$265,000	$118	41
204 Caladium St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,621 (+7%)	10mo	$219,000	$84	40
104 Buttercup St	0.57mi	5/2.0	2,129 (-13%)	9mo	$529,500	$249	40
219 Huckleberry Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,704 (+10%)	3mo	$434,000	$161	37
102 Rose Trl	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,762 (+13%)	11mo	$304,900	$110	31
314 Live Oak Ln	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,705 (+11%)	9mo	$399,000	$148	30
107 Sage St	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,096 (-14%)	8mo	$245,000	$117	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,531
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-269
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77566

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,196/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,730

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 1525 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 1524 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 1523 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 1522 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 1520 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 1516 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 1515 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 1514 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,900 Active 1511 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 1510 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 1509 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 1508 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 1507 DOM
14. 2025-12-15
    price $164,900
15. 2025-02-04
    price $169,000
16. 2024-04-02
    status Active
17. 2024-03-31
    historical
18. 2023-09-26
    status Active
19. 2023-09-26
    status Pending
20. 2023-09-19
    status Option Pending
21. 2023-07-01
    status Active
22. 2023-06-30
    historical
23. 2023-04-16
    price $179,000
24. 2022-10-20
    price $185,000
25. 2022-07-05
    price $2,000
26. 2022-05-12
    price $194,500
27. 2022-04-08
    price $199,500
28. 2022-04-06
    listed $185,000 Active
29. 2015-09-25
    soldstatus 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Large 2 story home with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths, possible 7 bedrooms, there is a bonus room off the kitchen and bonus room upstairs. Has a 1 car garage. Fenced back yard with a porch and front porch on the front. Extra parking on the side. Home has hardwood floors in living room. This home needs some TLC but could be a great home.

30. 2015-09-10
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Large 2 story home with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths, possible 7 bedrooms, there is a bonus room off the kitchen and bonus room upstairs. Has a 1 car garage. Fenced back yard with a porch and front porch on the front. Extra parking on the side. Home has hardwood floors in living room. This home needs some TLC but could be a great home.

31. 2015-08-25
    price $89,900

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Large 2 story home with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths, possible 7 bedrooms, there is a bonus room off the kitchen and bonus room upstairs. Has a 1 car garage. Fenced back yard with a porch and front porch on the front. Extra parking on the side. Home has hardwood floors in living room. This home needs some TLC but could be a great home.

32. 2015-07-24
    listed $94,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Large 2 story home with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths, possible 7 bedrooms, there is a bonus room off the kitchen and bonus room upstairs. Has a 1 car garage. Fenced back yard with a porch and front porch on the front. Extra parking on the side. Home has hardwood floors in living room. This home needs some TLC but could be a great home.

33. 2015-07-24
    listed $89,900 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Large 2 story home with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths, possible 7 bedrooms, there is a bonus room off the kitchen and bonus room upstairs. Has a 1 car garage. Fenced back yard with a porch and front porch on the front. Extra parking on the side. Home has hardwood floors in living room. This home needs some TLC but could be a great home.

34. 2007-03-23
    soldstatus
35. 2006-11-12
    historical
36. 2006-08-09
    listed $84,900
37. 2003-03-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,196 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,196 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$5,196
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $2,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$550
• After-tax cash flow: $4,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Jackson

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2709

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Jackson, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,246
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,246
• Household income: $92,586
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.81%
• Current HPI: 251.8234
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+94.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-09-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-04-16 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-05 Price Changed $2,000 RENT.
• 2022-05-12 Price Changed $194,500 HARMLS
• 2022-04-08 Price Changed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2022-04-06 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2015-09-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-09-25 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2015-09-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-08-25 Price Changed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2015-07-24 Listed $94,900 HARMLS
• 2015-07-24 Listed $89,900 BCBR
• 2007-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-08-09 Listed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2003-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,196 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.