15397 Knights Ct · Gordonsville, VA 22942

$134,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 3,600 sqft lot $132/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW HOME! This 1,020 sq. ft. 2 BED 2 BATH home is one of the newest models produced in the Single Wide Game. This home has many “must have features”! Entering through the craftsman front door you will find a LARGE Kitchen with Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, Duracraft cabinets, great countertop and cabinet space, recessed lighting and Lux windows for natural lighting! The Living room has an accent TV wall that round out the entertainment area of this great floorplan! The split floor plan features a 2nd bathroom for the bedroom on the opposite side of the house. Primary bedroom features dual sinks, large tub/shower and walk in closet. Interior photos are of similar model (no furniture or decor included). Park is rent is 400/mo and includes water and sewer. Additional models available.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.7% in Gordonsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#249 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.70%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,807
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -56.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15168 Madison Run Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+12%)	8mo	$352,000	$308	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,410
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,056
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22942

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $257	+0% $211	+5% $164	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $154	+0% $211	+5% $268	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $245	base $211	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $134,900 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   status $134,900 Active Under Contract 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 283 DOM
12. 2026-03-26
    price $134,900 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    NEW HOME! This 1,020 sq. ft. 2 BED 2 BATH home is one of the newest models produced in the Single Wide Game. This home has many “must have features”! Entering through the craftsman front door you will find a LARGE Kitchen with Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, Duracraft cabinets, great countertop and cabinet space, recessed lighting and Lux windows for natural lighting! The Living room has an accent TV wall that round out the entertainment area of this great floorplan! The split floor plan features a 2nd bathroom for the bedroom on the opposite side of the house. Primary bedroom features dual sinks, large tub/shower and walk in closet. Interior photos are of similar model (no furniture or decor included). Park is rent is 400/mo and includes water and sewer. Additional models available.

13. 2025-11-13
    price $144,900 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    NEW HOME! This 1,020 sq. ft. 2 BED 2 BATH home is one of the newest models produced in the Single Wide Game. This home has many “must have features”! Entering through the craftsman front door you will find a LARGE Kitchen with Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, Duracraft cabinets, great countertop and cabinet space, recessed lighting and Lux windows for natural lighting! The Living room has an accent TV wall that round out the entertainment area of this great floorplan! The split floor plan features a 2nd bathroom for the bedroom on the opposite side of the house. Primary bedroom features dual sinks, large tub/shower and walk in closet. Interior photos are of similar model (no furniture or decor included). Park is rent is 400/mo and includes water and sewer. Additional models available.

14. 2025-08-22
    listed $158,900 Active 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    NEW HOME! This 1,020 sq. ft. 2 BED 2 BATH home is one of the newest models produced in the Single Wide Game. This home has many “must have features”! Entering through the craftsman front door you will find a LARGE Kitchen with Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, Duracraft cabinets, great countertop and cabinet space, recessed lighting and Lux windows for natural lighting! The Living room has an accent TV wall that round out the entertainment area of this great floorplan! The split floor plan features a 2nd bathroom for the bedroom on the opposite side of the house. Primary bedroom features dual sinks, large tub/shower and walk in closet. Interior photos are of similar model (no furniture or decor included). Park is rent is 400/mo and includes water and sewer. Additional models available.

15. 2025-08-01
    historical $158,900 813-char remark

    Show marketing remark (813 chars)

    NEW HOME! This 1,020 sq. ft. 2 BED 2 BATH home is one of the newest models produced in the Single Wide Game. This home has many “must have features”! Entering through the craftsman front door you will find a LARGE Kitchen with Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, Duracraft cabinets, great countertop and cabinet space, recessed lighting and Lux windows for natural lighting! The Living room has an accent TV wall that round out the entertainment area of this great floorplan! The split floor plan features a 2nd bathroom for the bedroom on the opposite side of the house. Primary bedroom features dual sinks, large tub/shower and walk in closet. Interior photos are of similar model (no furniture or decor included). Park is rent is 400/mo and includes water and sewer. Additional models available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$98
• After-tax cash flow: $2,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1,020 sq. ft. single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a small front porch — Improves curb appeal and adds functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — Improves curb appeal and adds functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gordonsville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #249
• US rank: #8327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,115

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.72%
• Current HPI: 183.3855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $144,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $158,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-01 Coming Soon $158,900 BRIGHT MLS