414 Tobe · Gilmer, TX 75645

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2001 1.29 ac lot $167/sqft · 21% below area Est $164k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity in Gilmer, Texas! Sitting on approximately 1.29 acres near town and close to the highway, this property offers excellent potential for rental income, future development, additional homesites, duplexes, or investment expansion opportunities. The property includes a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with approximately 780 square feet, updated flooring and carpet, plus a detached workshop/storage building with electricity. Whether you’re looking for a rental property, starter home, fixer opportunity, or land with future possibilities, this property offers flexibility and value. This is an estate property being sold AS IS. Various personal items currently remain on site. Refrigerator is non-working and will need to be removed. Washer is non-working, while dryer remains operational. Furniture and additional items may remain with the property. Hard-to-find acreage inside town with investment potential makes this one worth a look!

Key facts

• Estate property
• Future development
• Detached workshop

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 1.29 ACRES
• RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL
• FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
• ADDITIONAL HOMESITES
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• ESTATE PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: For sale; Possession at closing/funding; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Originally built in 2001; Property attached: Yes; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Built in 2001
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.29-acre lot; Corner lot; Lot in William H Hereford subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level layout; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 54% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,500 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,071
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -20.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $61,574
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $188,609
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,152/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $104,388

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-108	+0% $-144	+5% $-181	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-183	+0% $-144	+5% $-106	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-111	base $-144	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Pecan St Unit 8 Gilmer, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$975	$1.11	44d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM

   Show marketing remark (959 chars)

   Investment opportunity in Gilmer, Texas! Sitting on approximately 1.29 acres near town and close to the highway, this property offers excellent potential for rental income, future development, additional homesites, duplexes, or investment expansion opportunities. The property includes a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with approximately 780 square feet, updated flooring and carpet, plus a detached workshop/storage building with electricity. Whether you’re looking for a rental property, starter home, fixer opportunity, or land with future possibilities, this property offers flexibility and value. This is an estate property being sold AS IS. Various personal items currently remain on site. Refrigerator is non-working and will need to be removed. Washer is non-working, while dryer remains operational. Furniture and additional items may remain with the property. Hard-to-find acreage inside town with investment potential makes this one worth a look!

10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $129,900 Active 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Investment opportunity in Gilmer, Texas! Sitting on approximately 1.29 acres near town and close to the highway, this property offers excellent potential for rental income, future development, additional homesites, duplexes, or investment expansion opportunities. The property includes a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with approximately 780 square feet, updated flooring and carpet, plus a detached workshop/storage building with electricity. Whether you’re looking for a rental property, starter home, fixer opportunity, or land with future possibilities, this property offers flexibility and value. This is an estate property being sold AS IS. Various personal items currently remain on site. Refrigerator is non-working and will need to be removed. Washer is non-working, while dryer remains operational. Furniture and additional items may remain with the property. Hard-to-find acreage inside town with investment potential makes this one worth a look!

19. 2026-05-11
    listed $129,900 Active 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Investment opportunity in Gilmer, Texas! Sitting on approximately 1.29 acres near town and close to the highway, this property offers excellent potential for rental income, future development, additional homesites, duplexes, or investment expansion opportunities. The property includes a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with approximately 780 square feet, updated flooring and carpet, plus a detached workshop/storage building with electricity. Whether you’re looking for a rental property, starter home, fixer opportunity, or land with future possibilities, this property offers flexibility and value. This is an estate property being sold AS IS. Various personal items currently remain on site. Refrigerator is non-working and will need to be removed. Washer is non-working, while dryer remains operational. Furniture and additional items may remain with the property. Hard-to-find acreage inside town with investment potential makes this one worth a look!

20. 2026-05-11
    listed $129,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Investment opportunity in Gilmer, Texas! Sitting on approximately 1.29 acres near town and close to the highway, this property offers excellent potential for rental income, future development, additional homesites, duplexes, or investment expansion opportunities. The property includes a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with approximately 780 square feet, updated flooring and carpet, plus a detached workshop/storage building with electricity. Whether you’re looking for a rental property, starter home, fixer opportunity, or land with future possibilities, this property offers flexibility and value. This is an estate property being sold AS IS. Various personal items currently remain on site. Refrigerator is non-working and will need to be removed. Washer is non-working, while dryer remains operational. Furniture and additional items may remain with the property. Hard-to-find acreage inside town with investment potential makes this one worth a look!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,152 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$225/yr (+$19/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,152
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$4,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$967
• After-tax cash flow: $-766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilmer, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $129,900 GTAR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $129,900 LAAR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $129,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,152 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.