516 S Butte St · Breckenridge, TX 76424

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1900 0.67 ac lot $38/sqft · 26% below area Est $54k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Partially renovated home on 3 lots with shop. Great fireplace not seen often on this type of home Multiple possibilities! Finish out the mostly completed renovations or use the spacious 3 lots to build the home of your dreams on. Quiet neighborhood and close to all the comforts of town.

Key facts

• Shop
• 3 lots
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• PARTIALLY RENOVATED HOME
• 3 LOTS
• SHOP
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.7% in Breckenridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#695 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Breckenridge ISD (town): math 36% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #551 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $998 of equity ($277 loan paydown + $721 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.10%
• DSCR: 3.23
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,804
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -25.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 N Flint St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (-9%)	12mo	$155,000	$159	51
902 E Lindsey St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	964 (-9%)	14mo	$124,900	$130	45
505 N Baylor Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+13%)	4mo	$54,945	$46	37
304 N Geneva St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-11%)	20mo	$59,900	$63	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $32,140
• Equity at exit: $15,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.78×
• Total profit: $75,949
• Equity at exit: $21,781

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76424

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $678/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $358

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $479	+0% $468	+5% $456	+10% $445
Rent	-10% $393	-5% $430	+0% $468	+5% $505	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $478	base $468	+0.5pp $457	+1.0pp $447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 S Miller St Unit 1/2 Breckenridge, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	44d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-02-02
    listed $40,000 Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Partially renovated home on 3 lots with shop. Great fireplace not seen often on this type of home Multiple possibilities! Finish out the mostly completed renovations or use the spacious 3 lots to build the home of your dreams on. Quiet neighborhood and close to all the comforts of town.

17. 2023-08-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $678 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$54/yr (+$5/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$678
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $5,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $4,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckenridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,744
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6700
• State rank: #551 of 826 in TX

Livability — Breckenridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #695
• US rank: #12987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,626

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,625 people
• By 2030: 11,029 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 11,827 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 12,609 · +18.7%
• By 2075: 13,855 · +30.4%
• By 2100: 13,067 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.2% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -63.6pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+78.6 2016: R+77.8 2012: R+70.9 2008: R+63.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Current HPI: 110.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $678 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.